000 AXNT20 KNHC 042322 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jan 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 985 mb occluded low pressure is centered N of the discussion area near 37N40W. The associated cold front enters the forecast region near 31N38W, then continues SW to near 27N45W, and westward to near 27N58W. This low is producing a large area of fresh to strong winds, covering mainly the waters N of 26N between 32W and 52W. Within this area, winds are reaching gale force N of 30N between 38W and 47W. Gale conditions are forecast to persist through early Tue morning. Long period NW swell follows the front, raising seas up to 20-22 ft. This swell event will continue to propagate across the waters N of 23N E of 50W tonight and Tue. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 03N25W to 04N38W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Convection is limited. GULF OF MEXICO... A nearly stationary front extends across the Straits of Florida and the northern Yucatan Peninsula into the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate winds are noted in the wake of the front based on the most recent scatterometer data. Mainly low clouds with embedded showers are noted along the frontal boundary. The front will drift SE tonight, reaching western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. High pressure of 1021 mb over SE Louisiana dominates the remainder of the Gulf region. A ridge will remain in place until late Wed when the next cold front will enter the NW Gulf. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the wake of the front that will reach from Pensacola, Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico on Thu, and move SE of the basin by Fri. Once again, high pressure will follow the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... As previously mentioned, a weak frontal boundary will reach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel tonight producing moderate to fresh northerly winds. The front will extend from central Cuba to the NW Caribbean on Tue morning, and from eastern Cuba and the Cayman Islands to near Tulum, Mexico by Wed morning, then gradually dissipate on Thu. The next cold front is forecast to reach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel on Fri. Latest scatterometer data provided observations of fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds over the remainder of the east and central parts of the basin. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are expected within about 90 nm of coast of Colombia tonight, then mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the south-central Caribbean the remainder of the forecast period. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will move across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Showers carried by the winds are currently affecting Puerto Rico and the US/UK Virgin Islands as well as the northern Leeward Islands. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three cold fronts are noted across the Atlantic forecast area. From west to east, the first cold front extends from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida. A band of mainly low clouds with some shower activity is associated with the front. Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted N of 27N ahead of the front while mainly moderate NW winds are seen behind the front. It is forecast to reach from 31N61W to central Cuba on Tue morning, then will be reinforcing from 31N60W to eastern Cuba by Wed morning. The front will begin to weaken Wed night into Thu as it reaches from 31N60W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. The second cold front is over the central Atlantic. Please, see the Special Feature section for more details. A weak 1019 mb high pressure is between the first and the second fronts near 23N65W. The third cold front crosses between the Madeira and the Canary Islands and continues SW to near 19N41W. Strong mid-upper level SW winds ahead of the front are advecting mid-upper level moisture from eastern Venezuela all the way to the west coast of Africa. $$ GR