000 AXNT20 KNHC 041009 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jan 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 984 mb occluded low centered over the north Atlantic near 40N46W will move to the south of Azores Islands over the next couple of days. There are already winds to gale force to the south of this low, and some of these near-gale to gale force winds will impact the discussion area Mon and Mon night north of 29N between 35W and 45W. Besides the winds, there are very large seas mainly in the form of NW swell accompanying this low, and seas 12 ft or greater will cover much of the area north of 20N and west of 50W starting early Mon and shifting east of the area through early Wed. Seas as high as 25 ft are possible near 30N40W Mon night. Refer to https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends across West Africa and reaches the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ continues to the southeast to 04N40W then toward the mouth of the Amazon River near 00N48W. All significant convection previously associated with this features has dissipated overnight. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has now stalled from the Florida Keys to the western tip of Cuba. No convection is associated with this boundary. A 1021 mb high pressure is centered over the mouth of the Mississippi River. This is maintaining light to gentle breezes over the northern Gulf with to 2 to 4 ft seas. Gentle to moderate mainly NE winds persist over the southern Gulf. Sea are 3 to 5 ft in the southern Gulf, with the highest seas in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the front will move SE out of the basin later this morning. High pressure will build across the Gulf in the wake of the front providing return gentle to moderate winds through Wed. A new cold front will come off the Texas coast late Wed with fresh to strong N to NE winds behind it. The front will extend from Pensacola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by Thu morning quickly move SE of the basin Fri morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1020 mb high pressure remains centered north of the area near 27N67W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the equatorial trough to the south is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the central and southwest Caribbean waters, with moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are observed over the northwest Caribbean. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range over the central and southwest Caribbean. Seas are 5-7 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the northwestern Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection has developed along the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica in association with the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Strong E winds N of Colombia pulsing early this morning will pulse again nightly through Thu night, otherwise moderate to strong trades will prevail over the basin as weak high pressure remains centered N of the area. A weak cold front will enter the NW Caribbean tonight, then drift east mainly N of 20N into mid- week. Some locally fresh NE winds are possible behind the front in the Yucatan Channel Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 60W: A cold front extends from 32N71W to the Florida Keys. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are noted ahead of the cold front north of 30N, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Surface ridging covers the western Atlantic Ocean to the east of the front, anchored by a 1020 mb high pressure near 27N67W. Light to gentle winds are noted near the high center and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the open waters south of 23N, and 3-5 ft elsewhere over the open waters. For the forecast W of 65W, high pressure centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico will weaken and move east today, ahead of a cold front that stretches from 31N75W through the Florida Keys. Fresh to strong S to SW winds N of 28N and ahead of the cold front will progress E into Tue as the front exits the region. High pressure surging south into the region Tue and Wed will lead to fresh to strong NW winds N of 27N Tue night through Wed night. The next cold front will come off the NE Florida coast Thu night preceded by fresh to strong to possibly near gale force S and SW winds. East of 60W: See Special Features section above for information on gale conditions today in the Central Atlantic. A cold front extends from 32N20W to 23N30W to 19N42W. Scattered moderate showers are noted within 120 nm east of the front. Strong W to NW winds are N of 28N between 35W and 50W. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas 8 to 11 ft in NW swell persist elsewhere north of 20N and east of 45W. The subtropical ridge axis extends from the high pressure near 27N67W eastward to 45W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 8 to 10 ft seas area noted south of the ridge in the tropical waters east of the Leeward and Windward Islands. Moderate trade winds are noted across the tropical waters east of 45W, with 5 to 8 ft seas. $$ KONARIK