000 AXNT20 KNHC 040412 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Jan 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 984 mb occluded low centered over the north Atlantic near 41N50W will move to the south of Azores Islands over the next couple of days. There are already winds to gale force to the south of this low, and some of these near-gale to gale force winds will impact the discussion area Mon afternoon and evening north of 29N between 35W and 45W. Besides the winds, there are very large seas mainly in the form of NW swell accompanying this low, and seas 12 ft or greater will cover much of the area north of 20N and west of 50W starting early Mon and shifting east of the area through early Wed. Seas as high as 24 ft are possible near 30N40W Mon night. Refer to https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends across West Africa and reaches the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ continues to the southeast to 04N40W then toward the mouth of the Amazon River near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 06N between 35W and 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near Naples, Florida to 23N85W, then continues as a stationary front to the northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N87W. The front is slowing down and weakening, and no significant weather is observed along the boundary. 1021 mb high pressure is centered over the mouth of the Mississippi River. This is maintaining light to gentle breezes overthe northern Gulf with to 2 to 4 ft seas. Gentle to moderate mainly NE winds persist over the southern Gulf, except for locally fresh northerly winds off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Sea are 3 to 5 ft in the southern Gulf, with the highest seas in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the front will drift southeast and move out of the basin Mon. Moderate to fresh NE winds mainly confined to the Bay of Campeche will diminish overnight.. High pressure will build across the Gulf in the wake of the front providing return gentle to moderate winds through late WEd. A new cold front will come off the Texas coast on Wed evening with fresh to strong N to NE winds behind it. The front will extend from Pensacola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by Thu morning quickly move SE of the basin Fri morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1021 mb high pressure remains centered north of the area near 27N67W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the equatorial trough to the south is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the central and southwest Caribbean waters, with moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are observed over the northwest Caribbean. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range over the central and southwest Caribbean. Seas are 5-7 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the northwestern Caribbean. No thunderstorm activity is evident anywhere throughout the basin. A few showers show up in regional radar across the Windward Islands, moving quickly in the trade wind flow. The strong winds over the central and southwest Caribbean will gradually decrease through early Mon as the high pressure north of the area continues to weaken. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades will dominate the eastern half of the basin afterwards, with pulses of strong NE winds off the coast of Colombia at night into Fri. The tail of a cold front will enter the far northwest Caribbean early Tue, then stall along Cuba adjacent waters Tue night before dissipating on Wed. This will lead to moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds over this region, including the Yucatan channel. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 60W: A cold front extends from 32N75W to South Florida. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are noted ahead of the cold front north of 30N, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Surface ridging covers the western Atlantic Ocean to the east of the front, anchored by a 1021 mb high pressure near 27N67W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail south of 22N, although these winds are starting to diminish. Light to gentle winds are noted near the high center and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the open waters south of 23N, and 3-5 ft elsewhere over the open waters. For the forecast west of 65W, the high pressure centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico will weaken and move east tonight, ahead of the advancing cold front. The waning influence of the ridge will lead to moderate east winds north of the Antilles through Mon. Fresh to strong S to SW winds north of 28N and ahead of the cold front will progress eastward into Tue as the front exits the region. High pressure surge south into the region Tue and Wed will lead to fresh to strong NW winds north of 27N Tue night through Wed night. The next cold front will come off the northeast Florida coast Thu night preceded by fresh to strong S winds. East of 60W: A cold front extends from 32N22W to 25N30W to 21N45W. Scattered moderate showers are noted within 150 nm east of the front, north of 20N. Fresh to strong winds are N of 28N between 45W and 55W ahead of the system mentioned in the Special Features section. Moderate NW winds and seas 8 to 11 ft in NW swell persist elsewhere north of 20N and east of 45W. The subtropical ridge axis extends from the high pressure near 27N67W eastward to 45W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 8 to 9 ft seas area noted south of the ridge in the tropical waters east of the Leeward and Windward Islands. Moderate trade winds are noted across the tropical waters east of 45W, with 5 to 8 ft seas. $$ Christensen