661 AXNT20 KNHC 032204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Jan 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: By Mon afternoon, a 985 mb low pressure will be near 37N41W. A cold front associated with this low will extend SW from 31N37W to near 25N47W. West winds behind the cold front will increase to gale force north of 28N, between 35W-52W by 1800 UTC Mon. The gales will last through Monday night. Seas will build to 17 to 25 ft by Mon night in and near the gale area. Refer to https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 04N24W to 03N40W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 40W- 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from south Florida to the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N87W. Light to gentle winds prevail over the north central Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Light to gentle winds prevail east of the front. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the SW Gulf, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. The cold front will move SE of the area tonight and fresh N to NE winds over the SE and SW gulf behind the front will diminish. High pressure will build across the Gulf in the wake of the front providing return gentle to moderate winds through Wed evening. A new cold front will come off the Texas coast on Wed evening with fresh to strong N to NE winds behind it. The front will extend from Pensacola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by Thu morning and from the Florida Keys to the Yucatan peninsula Fri morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1022 mb high pressure remains centered north of the area near 26N66W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the equatorial trough is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the central and southwest Caribbean waters, with moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are observed over the northwest Caribbean. Seas are in the 8 to 12 ft range over the central and southwest Caribbean. Seas are 6-8 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the northwestern Caribbean. Strong winds over the central and SW Caribbean will gradually decrease through early Mon as high pressure N of the area continue to weaken. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades will dominate the eastern half of the basin afterwards, with pulses of strong NE winds off the coast of Colombia at night through Fri. The tail of a cold front will enter the far NW Caribbean Tue, then stall along Cuba adjacent waters Tue night before dissipating on Wed. This will lead to moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds over this region, including the Yucatan channel. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 60W: A cold front extends from 32N78W to central Florida. Strong S to SW winds are noted ahead of the cold front north of 28.5N, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Surface ridging covers the western Atlantic Ocean to the east of the front, anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure near 26N66W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail south of 22N, with light to gentle winds near the high center and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 7 to 9 ft over the open waters south of 23N, and 4-7 ft elsewhere over the open waters. For the forecast west of 65W, the area of high pressure centered will continue to weaken this evening ahead of the cold front that extends over the NW waters. Th pressure gradient will loosen, which will diminish winds to moderate to locally fresh north of the Greater Antilles through Mon evening. Fresh to strong S to SW winds N of 27N and ahead of the cold front will progress E through Tue as the front exit the region. A reinforcing cold front will move across the waters N of 27N Tue followed by fresh to strong NW winds prevailing into early Thu. The next cold front will come off the NE Florida coast Thu night preceded by fresh to strong S winds. East of 60W: A dissipating cold front extends from 31N18W to 25N27W. The front is stationary from 25N27W to 17N32W. A surface trough extends from 16N41W to 08N52W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 150 nm either side of the front and trough. A second cold front extends from 32N23W to 20N43W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of this front. Fresh to strong winds are N of 25N between 22W and 34W, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. $$ AL