000 AXNT20 KNHC 031728 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: By Mon afternoon, a 985 mb low pressure will be near 37N41W. A cold front associated with this low will extend SW from 31N37W to 25N47W. West winds behind the cold front on the south side of the low will increase to gale force by 1800 UTC Mon, north of 28N, between 35W-52W. The gales will last through Monday night. Seas from wind waves combined with swell from the strong low pressure north of the area will build to 17 to 25 ft by Mon night in and near the gale area. Refer to https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 04N26W to 03N44W to 00N50W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 02N-07N between 10W-18W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 44W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near Fort Myers, Florida to the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N88W. A stationary front continues over the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N88W to 18N91W. A band of scattered showers is noted within 45 nm of the cold front. Behind the front, fresh N winds prevail with some locally strong winds along with seas of up to 8 ft in the SW Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Dry conditions persist across the north-central and northwest Gulf, related to high pressure of 1022 mb over the northwest Gulf. Gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas persist in the NW Gulf. Moderate S to SW winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident east of the front over the far SE Gulf and Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the cold front will move SE of the area early on Mon. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds over the E and SW Gulf behind the front will diminish. High pressure will build across the Gulf in the wake of the front providing gentle to moderate winds through Wed evening. A new cold front will come off the Texas coast on Wed evening with fresh to strong N to NE winds behind it. The front will extend from Pensacola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by Thu morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1024 mb high pressure remains centered north of the area near 26N67W. This is supporting strong trade winds across the south-central and southwest Caribbean offshore Colombia, with fresh winds over the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate E winds are observed over the northwest Caribbean. Seas are in the 9 to 12 ft range over the southwest and south-central Caribbean, south of 16N and west of 70W. Seas are 6-9 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the northwestern Caribbean. Other than some isolated showers in the Gulf of Honduras, no significant precipitation is noted. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will continue to decrease over the basin through tonight, as the high pressure building south into the region weakens. Through the first half of the week, expect mainly moderate trades, with pulses of locally strong east winds N of Colombia tonight and Mon night. A weak cold front will cross the northwestern Caribbean Tue and Tue night before dissipating Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 60W: A cold front extends from 32N79W to Daytona Beach Florida to Ft. Myers Florida. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front. Strong S to SW winds precede the cold front north of 28.5N, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Surface ridging covers the western Atlantic Ocean to the east of the front, anchored by a 1024 mb high pressure near 26N67W. Fresh winds continue south of 22N between 60W-77W, with light winds near the high center and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 7 to 9 ft south of 23N between 60W-71W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere over the open waters. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico will continue to weaken today, ahead of a cold front that moved off the coast of NE Florida this morning. The weakening ridge will result in winds diminishing to moderate to locally fresh north of the Greater Antilles through Mon night. Strong S to SW winds N of 27N ahead of the cold front will progress E through Mon night as the front exits the region. A reinforcing cold front will move across the waters N of 27N Tue followed by fresh to strong NW winds prevailing into Thu. East of 60W: A cold front extends from 31N21W to 25N27W. The front is stationary from 25N27W to 17N39W. A surface trough continues from 17N39W to 08N52W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 150 nm either side of the front and trough. A second cold front extends from 32N26W to 25N35W to 22N46W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 29N between 25W-32W. Farther south, a surface trough from 12N38W to 04N43W is producing scattered moderate convection near the SW half of the trough axis. Fresh to strong wind speeds are north of 23N between 25W-43W, with seas of 11 to 13 ft. $$ Hagen