000 AXNT20 KNHC 031008 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jan 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure centered between Puerto Rico and Bermuda will gradually weaken today but maintain a tight pressure over the Caribbean, support fresh to locally strong trades. Gales offshore Colombia will end this morning. Winds will overall subside early in the week, but strong nightly pulses are expected offshore Colombia. Refer to https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Central Atlantic Gale Warning: N winds behind cold front that will pass south of 30N on Monday will reach gale force N of 29N between 35W and 50W and continue through Mon night. Seas from wind waves combined with swell from a strong low pressure north of the area will exceed 20 ft in and near the gale area. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Guinea near 10N15W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 03N30W to 06N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N- 06N between 16W- 22W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near Fort Myers, Florida, to the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. A band of scattered showers are noted within 60 nm of the the cold front. Behind the front, fresh N winds prevail with some locally strong winds along with seas of up to 8 ft in the SW Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Dry conditions persist across the western Gulf related to high pressure anchored over the Texas coast and the northwest Gulf, where gentle to moderate N winds and 2 to 4 ft seas persist. Gentle to fresh S to SW winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident east of the front. Areas of fog along the coast of the Florida Peninsula, south of the front, will diminish later this morning. For the forecast, the cold front will move SE of the area early Mon. Strong N winds in the SW Gulf will decrease to fresh later today. High pressure will build into the northern Gulf today and prevail through mid-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning for areas offshore the Colombia coast. A 1024 mb high pressure remains centered north of the area between Puerto Rico and Bermuda near near 27N66W. This is supporting strong trade winds across the south central and southwest Caribbean early this morning, with fresh winds over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate E winds are observed over the northwest Caribbean. Seas are in the 10-14 ft range over the southwest and south- central Caribbean, south of 18N and west of 70W. Seas are 7-10 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 5-8 ft over the northwestern Caribbean. A surface trough that was previously located in the far eastern Caribbean has dissipated early this morning. For the forecast, strong winds will gradually decrease over the basin today, and gales will end off the coast of Colombia this morning, as the high pressure building south into the region weakens. Through the first half of the week, expect mainly moderate trades, with pulses of locally strong east winds N of Colombia tonight and Mon night. A weak cold front will cross the northwestern Caribbean early in the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 60W: Surface ridging covers the western Atlantic Ocean, anchored by a 1024 mb high pressure south of Bermuda near 27N66W. Fresh winds continue S of 23N, with light winds near the high center and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 8 to 10 ft south of 23N between 60W- 70W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere over the open waters. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are offshore the northern Florida coast, ahead of a cold front that is moving E toward the area. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico will continue to drift south and weaken today, allowing a cold front to move off the Florida coast by tonight. The weakening ridge will result in winds diminishing to moderate to locally fresh north of the Antilles, but strong S winds will develop N of 28N ahead of the cold front. These winds will progress E through early week as the front moves. A reinforcing cold front will move across the waters N of 27N Tue night followed by fresh to strong NW winds prevailing into Thu. East of 60W: A stationary front is noted from 32N37W to 26N48W, with strong NE winds N of the front. Strong low pressure has moved NE of the area near 35N31W. A cold front associated with this low extends south and west back into the area, stretching from 32N25W to 16N40W. Between this low and the cold front, N of 25N, strong W winds are occurring along with seas of 12 to 14 ft. Also, a broad area of scattered convection extends within 120 nm either side of the frontal boundary. $$ KONARIK