000 AXNT20 KNHC 030604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jan 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure will persist though Sunday north of the area, or more precisely between Puerto Rico and Bermuda. This will maintain a tight pressure gradient over the Caribbean supporting fresh to strong trades. Winds will pulse to gale force offshore Colombia tonight, then diminish slightly on Sun. Seas in the south- central Caribbean of 10 to 14 ft will prevail in association with these gales. Refer to https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Guinea near 10N15W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 03N30W to 06N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N- 06N between 16W- 22W, and from 05N-07N between 45W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Big Bend area of Florida to the central Yucatan peninsula. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm east of the front, north of 25N. Showers are also noted along the front over the Yucatan peninsula. Dry conditions persist across the western Gulf related to high pressure anchored over the Texas coast and the northwest Gulf, where gentle to moderate N winds and 2 to 4 ft seas persist. Buoy observations and data from a 03 UTC scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE winds over much of the south central Gulf between the high pressure and the front. The scatterometer pass also confirmed 20 to 25 kt NW to N winds funneling off the coast of Veracruz, south of 20N and west of 95W. Seas in that area are estimated to be 7 to 10 ft, with 4 to 7 ft elsewhere across the southwest Gulf. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere west of the front. Gentle to fresh S to SW winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident east of the front. For the forecast, the high pressure building over the western Gulf in the wake of the front will continue to support strong to possibly near gale force north winds in the southwest Gulf through early Sun. The cold front will move SE of the basin Mon. Surface ridging will dominate the basin afterwards through the middle of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gale force winds are expected tonight offshore Colombia. Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning. A 1025 mb high pressure remains centered north of the area between Puerto Rico and Bermuda near near 27N66W. This pattern is supporting strong to near gale force trade winds across the south central and southwest Caribbean this evening, as confirmed from a scatterometer satellite from around 03 UTC which showed winds 30 kt off Colombia. This pass just missed the area a little farther east off the Colombian coast near Barranquilla where winds are likely pulsing to gale force. Fresh to strong trade winds are noted elsewhere over the eastern Caribbean, and gentle to moderate E winds are observed over the northwest Caribbean. Seas are in the 10-14 ft range over the southwest and south- central Caribbean, south of 18N and west of 70W. Seas are 7-10 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 5-8 ft over the northwestern Caribbean. A broad surface trough was analyzed across the far eastern Caribbean. There are no thunderstorms evident on satellite derived lightning data, but regional radars show what may be a few showers related to a surge in the trade winds in a broad arc from the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands through northwestward to the Puerto Rico, the Mona Passage, and the eastern Dominican Republic. For the forecast, the strong east winds will prevail across the eastern, central and southwest Caribbean as the high pressure north of the area remains in place into Sun night. Gale force winds will prevail tonight offshore Colombia, then decrease to near gale Sun morning. Winds across the central and eastern basin will decrease to mainly moderate to locally fresh early on Mon, except for strong winds pulsing nightly off the N coast of Colombia through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 60W: Surface ridging covers the western Atlantic Ocean, anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure south of Bermuda near 27N66W. Recent scatterometer satellite data showed fresh trade winds south of 22N to Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, except for a small area of 20 to 25 kt winds in the northern approaches to the Mona Passage. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high pressure center, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 8 to 10 ft south of 23N between 60W- 70W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere over the open waters. A few showers are active off the northeast Florida coast, in advance of a cold front moving through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. No major shower or thunderstorm activity is noted elsewhere farther east into the high pressure area. For the forecast west of 65W, the strong high pressure will continue to prevail over the region through Sun and weaken thereafter. This will allow fresh to strong trades south of 22N mainly impacting Hispaniola adjacent waters to diminish early next week. Expect S to SW winds to increase overnight to fresh to strong over the waters north of 30N off northeast Florida, ahead of a cold front that will move off the coast of northeast Florida on Sun. These winds will continue to impact the waters north of 28N as the front progresses eastward into Tue. A reinforcing cold front will move across the waters north of 27N Tue night followed by fresh to strong NW winds prevailing through Wed night. East of 60W: A stationary front extends from 32N39W to 26N48W. Strong to near gale force N winds are north of the front, east of 50W. A 998 mb low pressure is centered near 33N33W. An occluded front extends from the low to a triple point near 32N27W. A cold front extends southwest from the triple point to 20N36W. Strong to near gale force W winds are active south of the low pressure, north of 25N, with 12 to 15 ft seas in N swell. Scattered moderate convection associated with these frontal systems is north of 26N between 20W and 30W. A broad area of northerly swell with wave heights in excess of 8 ft covers the waters west of a line from near the Canary Islands to Suriname. $$ Christensen