000 AXNT20 KNHC 022201 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jan 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure N of the Greater Antilles will continue in place through Sunday. This will maintain a tight pressure gradient over the Caribbean supporting fresh to strong trades. Winds will pulse to gale force offshore Colombia tonight, then diminish slightly on Sun. Seas in the south- central Caribbean of 10 to 14 ft will prevail in association with these gales. Refer to https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea near 11N15W to 06.5N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N19W to 03N26W to 02N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-07N between 20W- 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to 20N93W. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is occurring within 90 nm behind and 60 nm ahead of the front. Fresh to strong winds prevail S of 25N and west of the front, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere across the Gulf. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range in the areas of strongest winds, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. High pressure building over the western Gulf in the wake of the front will support strong to near gale force north winds in the southwest Gulf through early Sun. The cold front will move SE of the basin Mon. Surface ridging will dominate the basin afterwards through the middle of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1026 mb high pressure remains centered north of the area near 28.5N64.5W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the equatorial trough is supporting fresh to strong winds across much of the Caribbean basin. Seas are in the 10-14 ft range over the central Caribbean, 7-10 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 5-8 ft over the western Caribbean. Gale force winds are expected tonight offshore Colombia. Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning. Aside from the gale force winds, strong east winds will prevail across the eastern, central and southwest Caribbean as strong high pressure north of the area remains in place through Sun. Winds across the central and eastern basin will decrease to mainly moderate to locally fresh early on Mon, except for strong winds pulsing nightly off the N coast of Colombia trough Wed night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh SE to E winds in the NW Caribbean will diminish late Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 60W: Surface ridging covers the western Atlantic Ocean, anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure south of Bermuda near 28.5N64.5W. Fresh to strong trade winds are occurring south of 22N to Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high pressure center, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 8 to 10 ft south of 23N between 60W-70W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere over the open waters. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail over the region through Sun and weaken thereafter. Fresh to strong trades S of 23N mainly impacting Hispaniola adjacent waters will diminish Sun night. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are over the NW offshore waters ahead of a cold front that will move off the coast of NE Florida on Sun. These winds will continue to impact the waters N of 27N as the front progresses eastward through Tue. A reinforcing cold front will move across the waters N of 27N Tue night followed by fresh to strong NW winds prevailing through Wed night. East of 60W: A cold front extends from 32N40W to 26N50W then dissipating to 30N60W. Strong to near gale force N winds are north of the front, east of 52W. A 998 mb low pressure is centered near 31N35W. An occluded front extends from the low to a triple point near 32N27W. A cold front extends SW from the triple point to 20N37W. A reinforcing cold front is analyzed from 32N31W to 20N39W. Strong to near gale force W winds are behind the reinforcing front and south of the low pressure, north of 25N. Scattered moderate convection associated with these frontal systems is seen within an area from 20N45W to 32N26W to 32N15W to 20N28W to 20N45W. A surface trough is noted from 20N37W to 13N49W. Another nearby surface trough extends from 14N38W to 07N51W. Scattered moderate convection associated with the troughs is seen from 06N- 20N between 34W- 51W. $$ AL