000 AXNT20 KNHC 021805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jan 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure N of the Greater Antilles will continue in place through Sunday. This will keep a tight pressure gradient in place over the Caribbean and strong trades in place. East winds will pulse to gale force offshore Colombia tonight, then diminish slightly on Sun. Seas in the south-central Caribbean of 10 to 14 ft will prevail in association with these gales. Refer to https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea near 11N15W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 04N25W to 04N38W to 02N46W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-06N between 12W-34W. GULF OF MEXICO... A slow-moving cold front extends from Tallahassee Florida to 20N93W. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is occurring within 90 nm behind and 60 nm ahead of the front, including over portions of the Florida Panhandle near Tallahassee, where Flash Flood Warnings are in effect. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh winds near the front on both sides of the front in the NE and central Gulf. Farther away from the front over the SE Gulf, moderate S flow prevails through the Yucatan Channel. Broken low clouds cover much of the remainder of the Gulf behind the front, despite high pressure buidling in over the western Gulf of Mexico. This building high pressure is currently causing strong N winds over the SW Gulf, behind the cold front. Strong to near gale force north winds will continue in the southwest Gulf through early Sun. The cold front will move SE of the basin Mon. Surface ridging will dominate the basin afterwards through the middle of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1027 mb high pressure continues to sit north of the area near 29N65W. A recent ASCAT pass from Saturday morning shows near gale force trade winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Strong E winds are elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean, east of 80W. Seas of 9 to 13 ft cover the central Caribbean. Moderate E to SE winds are over the NW Caribbean. Gale force winds are expected tonight offshore Colombia. Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning. Mid-level ridging and relatively dry air dominate most of the basin. No significant precipitation is seen over the basin, other than some possible isolated showers to the east of Honduras and northern Nicaragua. For the forecast, strong east winds will prevail across the eastern, central and southwest Caribbean through Sun morning as strong high pressure remains parked to the north of the area. Gale force winds are expected tonight offshore Colombia diminishing to near gale Sun morning. The high to the north will weaken some as it shifts E Sun night into Mon. Winds across the central and eastern basin will decrease to mainly moderate to locally fresh early on Mon, except for strong winds pulsing nightly off the N coast of Colombia trough Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 60W: Showers are seen off the coast of Georgia north of 31N west of 80W ahead of a cold front that is inland over South Carolina and Georgia to Tallahassee Florida. Surface ridging covers the western Atlantic Ocean, anchored by a 1027 mb high pressure south of Bermuda near 29N65W. Fresh to strong trade winds are occurring south of 23N to Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Seas are 8 to 10 ft south of 23N between 60W-70W. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail through the weekend. Fresh to strong trades S of 23N impacting mainly Hispaniola adjacent waters will diminish Sun night. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will start to move offshore northern Florida and Georgia later this afternoon into tonight ahead of a cold front that will move off the coast Sun. These winds will move eastward with the front through Tue, impacting waters north of 27N. Currently, east of 60W: A cold front extends from 32N45W to 28N53W to 32N61W. Strong to near gale force N winds are north of the front, east of 52W. These winds are being influenced by an occluded 1001 mb low pressure that is centered near 31N37W. An occluded front extends from the low to a triple point near 31N28W. A cold front extends SW from the triple point to 25N31W to 20N37W. A reinforcing cold front is analyzed from 30N33W to 25N35W to 20N45W. Strong to near gale force W winds are behind the reinforcing front and south of the low pressure, north of 25N. Strong to near gale force SE winds are seen from 28N-32N between 22W-26W, near a warm front that extends from 31N28W to 30N25W. Scattered moderate convection associated with these frontal systems is seen inside a box with points from 20N48W to 27N34W to 32N34W to 32N11W to 20N29W to 20N48W. Farther south, a surface trough is noted from 20N37W to 13N43W. Another nearby surface trough extends from 14N38W to 06N52W. Scattered moderate convection associated with the troughs is seen from 06N-20N between 33W-52W. For the forecast east of 60W: Near gale force south winds are expected in the NE Atlantic, west of the Maderia Islands Sunday night and early Mon, from 29N-32N between 15W-24W. Any brief gale force winds during this time would likely occur north of 32N. Another low presure system will be near 37N43W by Mon, with near gale force W winds north of 30N betwen 35W-50W Mon and Mon night. This will spread seas of 12 to 22 feet north of 25N east of 55W. $$ Hagen