000 AXNT20 KNHC 021012 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jan 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure N of the Greater Antilles will continue to build southward through the weekend, while slowly weekend. This will keep a tight pressure gradient in place over the Caribbean and strong trades in place. East winds will pulse to gale force offshore Colombia tonight, then diminish slightly again on Sun. Seas in the south-central Caribbean of 10 to 14 ft will prevail in association with these gales. Refer to https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: Within 24 to 48 hours, there is a threat of mainly southeasterly gale conditions in Meteo France areas including Irving and Madeira in association with low pressure. Please, refer to the following website: http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST.2126.0 121264011873.html, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea near 11N15W, curving to 10N17W and 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 04N23W, along 03N/05N between 23W and 51W at the coast of Brazil just to the east of French Guiana. Scattered to numerous strong convection is noted from 02N to 04N between 14W and 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak 1012 mb low pressure is centered near the Bay of Campeche at 19N94W, with a stationary front extending west into Mexico from it. A stalled front also extends NE from this low across the central Gulf to near Panama Beach, Florida. Scattered moderate convection is located within 90 nm on either side of this boundary. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are occurring to the N and W of the front, with moderate to fresh mainly S winds to the S and E. High pressure building into the NW Gulf will cause the stationary front to begin to move southeast as a cold front later this morning, bringing strong to near gale force north winds in the southwest Gulf from offshore Veracruz to offshore Campeche through tonight. The cold front will move SE of the basin Mon. Surface ridging will dominate the basin afterwards through the middle of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning for tonight off the coast of Colombia. High pressure continues to build south into the basin, producing strong east winds and isolated fast moving showers embedded in the flow across much of the basin. Near gale conditions are occurring within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia. The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N73W, across Panama, beyond NW Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation previously associated with this trough has diminished early this morning. Strong east winds will prevail across the eastern, central and southwest Caribbean as strong high pressure north of the area remains in place through the weekend. A pulse of easterly gales is expected tonight offshore Colombia. Winds will decrease to mainly moderate to locally fresh early on Mon, except strong winds will pulse nightly off the N coast of Colombia trough Wed night. Otherwise, fresh to strong SE winds in the NW Caribbean will diminish this morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning for later this weekend in Meteo France's area in the far eastern Atlantic. A 1004 mb low pressure center near 30N39W is inducing scattered moderate convection N and E of it in association with an occluded front. A cold front extends from this occlusion from around 30N36W to 19N45W to 22N52W. Scattered convection is occurring within 120 nm to the SE of this front, mainly E of 45W. A broader area of moderate convection resides within 180 nm either side of a trough that extends from 29N24W to 18N50W. Behind this cold front, especially near the low pressure, strong N winds are occurring along with seas of 12 to 16 ft. To the west, an expansive high pressure ridge, centered near Bermuda, of 1028 mb, is dominating much of the western Atlantic. High pressure will prevail over the region through the weekend. Fresh to strong trades to the S of this high will impact areas just north of the Greater Antilles through tonight, then gradually diminish through Tue. Strong S to SW winds will develop off the N coast of Florida today, ahead of a cold front that will move off the coast Sun. This front will extend from Bermuda through the southern Bahamas by Tue morning and from 25N65W to the Windward Passage Wed. $$ KONARIK