000 AXNT20 KNHC 020559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jan 02 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN: The METEO FRANCE outlook, for the 24 hour time period after the initial forecast period, consists of: the Persistence or threat of Cyclonic, mainly Southerly, near gale or gale in IRVING and METEOR, then the western part of MADEIRA at the end. Please, refer to the following website: http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST.2126.0 121264011873.html, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea near 11N15W, curving to 10N17W and 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 04N23W, along 03N/05N between 23W and 51W at the coast of Brazil just to the east of French Guiana. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 02.5N to 03.5N between 14W and 20W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 03N to 09N between 30W and 36W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 10N southward from 47W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level SW wind flow covers the entire Gulf of Mexico. The SW wind flow is on the western side of an upper level ridge. The upper level ridge extends from Colombia, to the waters that are between Jamaica and NE Nicaragua/E Honduras, across the NW half of Cuba, beyond Lake Okeechobee in southern Florida. A stationary front passes through the Florida Panhandle, to 24N90W, to a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 20N94W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, beyond 20N97W at the coast of Mexico. The stationary front continues in Mexico to 23N99W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, are to the south of the line that runs from the border of the Florida Panhandle with Alabama, to 26N96W, and southward along 96W to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A cold front has stalled tonight, from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. This front will begin to move again, on Saturday morning, as high pressure surges southward into the Gulf of Mexico. This will result in a period of strong to near gale-force north winds offshore Tampico to Veracruz, Mexico through Saturday night. The front will move SE of the basin on Monday. Surface ridging will dominate the basin afterward, through the middle of the next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Current water vapor imagery, and the GFS model for 250 mb, show that a ridge extends from Colombia, to the waters that are between Jamaica and NE Nicaragua/E Honduras, across the NW half of Cuba, beyond Lake Okeechobee in southern Florida. The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N73W, across Panama, beyond NW Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 12N southward from 70W westward. Broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere, moving through the Caribbean Sea, away from the area of the monsoon trough precipitation. Strong east winds will prevail across the eastern, central, and southwestern Caribbean Sea, as strong high pressure to the north of the area remains in place through the weekend. The wind speeds will decrease, to mainly moderate to locally fresh, early on Monday. Strong to near gale-force winds will pulse nightly off the N coast of Colombia through Wednesday. Fresh to strong SE winds in the NW Caribbean Sea will diminish on Saturday morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1004 mb low pressure center is near 29N41W. An occluded front curves away from the 1004 mb low pressure center, to 31N41W and to 30N40W. A warm front extends from 30N40W to 31N35W. A cold front continues from 30N40W to 26N40W to 22N46W, and 24N51W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 500 nm of the 1004 mb low pressure center, in the NE quadrant. A surface trough is along 25N31W 18N40W and 10N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 400 nm to the northwest, and within 300 nm to the southeast, of the line that runs from 31N23W, along the surface trough, to 07N54W. between 37W and 50W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers are to the north and northwest of the line 10N50W 16N30W 23N21W 30N20W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 75 nm on either side of the cold front between 44W and 64W. A 1028 mb high pressure center is about 95 nm to the SSW of Bermuda. Broad anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, elsewhere, from 18N northward from 52W westward, and away from the cold front. High pressure will prevail in the region through the weekend. Fresh to strong trade winds to the S of this area of high pressure will impact the areas that are just to the north of the Greater Antilles through Saturday night, then gradually diminish through Tuesday. Strong S to SW winds will develop off the N coast of Florida on Saturday night, in advance of a cold front that will move off the coast on Sunday. This front will extend from Bermuda through the southern Bahamas by Tuesday morning, and from 25N65W to the Windward Passage on Wednesday. $$ mt/sk