000 AXNT20 KNHC 011746 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jan 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1004 mb low pressure is centered near 29N44W. A recent ASCAT pass from this morning suggests that gale force N winds up to 35 kt are occurring west of the low from 29N- 31N between 50W-52W. Wave heights of 17 to 23 ft are present in the area. Winds in the area are forecast to diminish to below gale force by this evening. Seas will subside to less than 14 ft this evening. The low is expected to move northeastward, and north of the area on Saturday. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 11N15W, curving to 10N17W and 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 04N26W to 05N39W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-12N between 26W-44W. Scattered showers are elsewhere from 02S-11N between 44W and the coast of South America. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Pensacola Florida to 25N90W to a 1012 mb low pressure near 20N94W. A stationary front continues from the low to the coast of Mexico near 18.5N95W to 18.5N97W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 60 nm ahead of the cold front north of 27.5N, including over portions of the Florida Panhandle. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong W winds to the south of the Louisiana coast. Moderate to fresh NE winds are to the north of the low pressure in the southern Gulf, and west of the front. Winds have diminished to moderate now immediately to the west of the cold front over the north-central Gulf. Fresh S winds cover the eastern Gulf, east of 87W. Winds and seas will gradually diminish today as the front weakens. By tonight, this front will stretch from the Florida Panhandle to the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The front will slow on Saturday, then strengthen and accelerate Sunday as high pressure surges into the Gulf. By Mon morning, the front will stretch from the Florida Straits to the northern Yucatan peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure centered south of Bermuda is building into the Caribbean, tightening the pressure gradient between it and lower pressure over South America to produce a broad area of strong trades over much of the basin, especially north of 14N and east of 76W. Additionally, strong SE to S winds are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras northward into the Yucatan Peninsula, flowing toward a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh winds are occurring elsewhere in the basin. Seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail across most of the open waters of the Caribbean, except for south of Cuba, where seas are 4 to 8 ft. The highest seas are over the central Caribbean between Hispaniola and Colombia. Generally dry conditions prevail except for some scattered showers near the coast of Venezuela. Fresh to near gale force easterly winds will prevail across the eastern, central and southwest Caribbean through early Sunday as strong high pressure remains parked to the north of the area. The high will weaken some as it shifts eastward Sunday into Monday. Winds will decrease to mainly moderate to fresh early on Monday, except strong winds will still pulse nightly off the N coast of Colombia. Elsewhere, in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, the fresh to strong SE winds that are occurring now will diminish Saturday morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad surface ridge prevails over the western Atlantic, anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure centered south of Bermuda near 31N65W. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong E winds north of Puerto Rico, north of Hispaniola and through the SE Bahamas, mainly south of 24N. Fresh SE winds are seen through the central and NW Bahamas and east of Florida. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are present closer to the surface high. An occluded 1004 mb low is over the central Atlantic near 29N44W with strong to gale force N winds to the west of the low. See the Special Features section above for details on the central Atlantic Gale Warning. A cold front extends from a triple point associated with this low near 29N36W to 20N46W, with a dissipating cold front continuing to 17N59W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 26N-32N between 35W-45W, and north of 27N between 26W-31W. A surface trough extends from 24N32W to 10N50W. Scattered moderate showers are within 90 nm either side of the trough axis. Strong SE-S winds are near the NE end of the surface trough from 20N-30N. For the forecast west of 65W: High pressure will continue to prevail south of Bermuda and over the western Atlantic through the weekend. Fresh to strong trades to the S of this high will continue to impact areas just north of the Greater Antilles through Sat night, then gradually diminish through Tue. Strong S to SW winds will develop off the N coast of Florida this Sat night, ahead of a cold front that will move off the coast Sun. This front will extend from Bermuda through the southern Bahamas by Tue morning. $$ Hagen