000 AXNT20 KNHC 010543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jan 01 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is along 31N40W 21N49W 19N61W. Expect NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 19 feet to 26 feet, within 30N47W to 28N48W to 30N52W to 31N52W to 31N48W to 30N47W. The gale-force winds are forecast to last for the next 18 hours or so. ...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is along 30N93W 23N93W 19N96W. Expect W gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, within 27N96W to 26N96W to 27N97W to 29N96W to 28N95W to 27N96W. The gale-force winds are forecast to last for the next 12 hours or so. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, curving to 10N18W and 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from along 05N/06N between 20W and 46W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to the north of the ITCZ and within 100 nm to the south of the ITCZ, between 34W and 43W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ and within 75 nm to the south of the ITCZ, between 20W and 34W, and elsewhere from 10N southward between 43W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level SW wind flow covers at least 75 percent of the western part of the Gulf of Mexico. The SW wind flow is on the western side of an upper level ridge. The upper level ridge extends from Colombia/Panama, across the NW half of Cuba, to northern sections of Florida. A cold front has entered the W part of the Gulf of Mexico. The front passes through SW Louisiana, to 26N92W, and to 20N97W at the coast of Mexico. Gale-force winds are associated with the cold front, within 27N96W TO 26N96W TO 27N97W TO 29N96W TO 28N95W TO 27N96W. A low pressure center is in SE Texas. A cold front extends south to near Veracruz, Mexico. A gale warning is in effect through tonight for the area that is to the NW of the front. The front will stall briefly, from the Florida Panhandle to southern Mexico by Friday night. Reinforcing cold air will push the cold front into the eastern Gulf of Mexico during this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Current water vapor imagery, and the GFS model for 250 mb, show a ridge that extends from Colombia and Panama, across the NW half of Cuba, to northern sections of Florida. The GFS model for 500 mb shows that an east-to-west oriented trough extends from 18N60W to 15N80W. The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11N73W, across Panama, beyond NW Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 12N southward from 70W westward. Broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere, moving through the Caribbean Sea, away from the area of the monsoon trough precipitation. Fresh to strong easterly winds will prevail across the region, as strong high pressure that is to the north of the area shifts east. Fresh to strong trade winds and large seas are expected across most of the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1004 mb low pressure center is near 31N45W. An occluded front curves away from the 1004 mb low pressure center, to 34N44W and to 31N41W. A cold front continues from 31N41W to 25N41W 21N50W 20N60W. A surface trough is along 24N39W 18N42W and 16N46W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 27N between 37W and 50W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers are to the north and northwest of the line 10N50W 16N30W 23N21W 30N20W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 75 nm on either side of the cold front between 44W and 64W. A 1031 mb high pressure center is about 50 nm to the NE of Bermuda. Broad anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, elsewhere, from 18N northward from 55W westward, and away from the cold front. Strong high pressure to the north of the area will shift toward the east-southeast through Friday. Fresh to strong trade winds and large seas will prevail across the southern waters through Friday night. A cold front will move to the east of Florida on Sunday, and extend from 31N70W across the Bahamas to northern Cuba on Monday afternoon, enhancing the winds and the seas. $$ mt/sk