000 AXNT20 KNHC 252330 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 730 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic, with axis from 13N35W to 02N35W, moving W at 10-15 kt. A TPW maximum is noted just behind the wave's axis. Model guidance also supports this position. Scattered showers are noted in the wave's environment between 30W-40W. A tropical wave is analyzed from 18N44W to 09N47W, moving W at 10-15 kt. This position is supported by model guidance. Dry Saharan air surrounds the wave limiting convection at this time. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W from 22N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is apparent in TPW imagery. Also, model guidance and the Santo Domingo 12Z sounding data suggest the passage of the wave over the island. Scattered showers remain over Hispaniola and adjacent waters. A tropical wave is in the southwest Caribbean with axis along 83W from 17N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean south of 15N between 79W- 86W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 14N17W to 07N31W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave near 05N38W and continues to the coast of South America near 07N58W. Aside from the convection described near the tropical wave, scattered showers are noted along and within 90 nm south of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level diffluence across the southwest Gulf coast supports scattered moderate strong convection along the Mexico/Texas coast and extending into the Gulf waters mainly west of 92W. A 1018 mb surface high is centered near 26N83W maintains fair weather across the eastern Gulf. Light and gentle southeast winds continues across the east half of the Gulf, while moderate to fresh winds prevail across the western half. A surface trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to strong winds each night through Wed night as it moves west- northwest over the SW Gulf. A surface ridge will dominate the remainder of the basin supporting gentle to moderate winds through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Upper-level cyclonic flow covers the western Caribbean Sea, while dry air prevails across the northwest portion of the basin. Farther south, in an area with greater moisture content, scattered moderate convection is seen over NW Colombia, as well as the waters north of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Light to gentle easterly trades are noted across the northwest Caribbean, and moderate to fresh east winds prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. A weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low is producing generally moderate to fresh tradewinds across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. This will support strong breezes north of Colombia, the Gulf of Venezuela and the Gulf of Honduras. The Bermuda high will strengthen by Wed increasing winds across the central and southwest basin through the weekend. Strong to near gale force winds are expected at night over Colombia adjacent waters Tue night through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic. A surface trough northeast of the Bahamas extends from 31N68W to 26N74W. To the east, a stationary front enters the forecast area near 31N49W to 26N59W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N45W to 24N51W. Scattered showers are noted ahead of the front and in the vicinity of the trough, mainly N of 26N. In the NE Atlantic, a cold front enters the area near 32N12W to 25N18W. No significant convection accompanies the front. The trough northeast of the Bahamas will move westward through Thu, likely reaching Florida by Fri. The pressure gradient on the southwest side of the Bermuda high will remain weak, producing light to gentle winds in the area through Wed. The Bermuda high will strengthen Wed night through Sat and tradewinds will increase to moderate east of the Bahamas, across the Old Bahama Channel, and in the approaches to the Windward Passage. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA