000 AXNT20 KNHC 190007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 807 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to support gale force winds south of 18N between 66W an 83W every night through Sat. Sea heights will build up to 14-15 ft. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlc with axis extending from 03N21W to 13N21W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Upper level diffluent flow supports scattered moderate convection from 05N to 09N between 20W and 24W. The remainder wave environment is devoid of convection partly due to strong wind shear and Saharan dry air in the northern region of the wave. A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 03N52W to 14N52W, moving W at 15-20 kt. Upper level diffluence and abundant low to middle level moisture support scattered moderate convection from 07N to 12N between 48W and 57W. This wave is forecast to bring gusty winds and rain to the Windward Islands on Wed. A tropical wave is in the east Caribbean with axis extending from 09N62W to 17N62W, moving W at 15-20 kt. Upper level diffluence and abundant low to middle level moisture support scattered showers across the Windward Islands, the SE Caribbean and portions of Venezuela. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending from 07N73W to 17N72W, moving W at 15-20 kt. Low level water vapor imagery show a dry environment in that portion of the basin that along with strong wind shear hinder the development of convection at the time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 09N13W to 07N22W to 06N26W. The ITCZ begins near 06N26W and continues along 06N38W to 06N48W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ between 26W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level short-wave trough extends from the northern central basin to a base near the Yucatan Peninsula. This upper feature supports a surface trough from SE Louisiana to 26N94W. Diffluent flow to the east of the upper trough and moisture being advected from the Caribbean by S-SE flow fuel scattered showers and tstms over the NE gulf N of 25N E of 91W. Similar shower activity is in portions of the Florida Straits and off the western coast of Cuba. An upper ridge entering the western half of the basin support fair weather conditions in that region. Showers will prevail in the NE Gulf through early Thu when the upper trough moves east of the region. Otherwise, surface ridging will prevail across most of the gulf through the weekend along with return flow. A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to locally strong winds over the Bay of Campeche each night as it moves off the coast. CARIBBEAN SEA... The main concern in the Caribbean will be gale force winds developing every night near the coast of Colombia through Sat. An upper level short-wave trough is along the Florida Peninsula. Diffluent flow to the east of this feature support scattered showers and tstms across portions of Cuba and adjacent waters. A tropical wave is moving across the eastern basin generating showers in the Windward Islands. Another tropical wave is moving across the central basin, however it lacks convection. A third tropical wave is forecast to enter the eastern Caribbean on Wed, thus supporting the continuation of showers in the Windward Islands. Gusty winds are possible with the passage of this wave through the region. Otherwise, strong winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere through Sat night. For further information on the gale, and the tropical waves. See sections above. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level trough along the Florida Peninsula support a surface trough, which is generating showers and tstms along the Florida seaboard and over the northern and central Bahamas. Surface ridging prevails elewhere supporting fair weather. The surface trough will move slowly eastward off the coast of NE Florida through late Wed. Strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola each night through Thu night. Otherwise, the ridge will dominate the region through Sat night. Winds will increase some over the northern waters Thu through Fri as the gradient pressure tightens between the ridge and a low pressure system moving off NE of United States. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos