000 AXNT20 KNHC 021626 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1126 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Ivory Coast near 05N03W to 03N10W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 05S16W to the coast of Brazil near 04S39W. Scattered moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms are active from 01S to 02N between 27W and 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is moving off southeast Louisiana and the mouth of the Mississippi River. The front is stationary west of 90W and continues across the far northwest Gulf to Corpus Christi Texas. Observing stations along the coast of Texas indicate persistent dense fog north of the stationary front. Offshore platforms indicate 3 to 5 nm in fog, south of the frontal boundary. Regional radar is showing moderate rainshowers and a few thunderstorms ahead of the frontal boundary, moving onshore near Panama City Florida, and reaching across north central Florida to Jacksonville. Fair conditions prevail elsewhere with moderate SE winds 1 to 3 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure extending westward from the Atlantic over the basin will maintain light to moderate southeast winds across through tonight. A strong cold front will move over the NW Gulf Sun, then move southeastward across the rest of the Gulf through Wed. Strong north to northeast winds and building seas will follow behind the front, with gale conditions possible for the waters near Veracruz Mexico Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A sharp mid to upper trough reaching from off the east coast of Florida to the Gulf of Honduras is supporting a surface trough from the southern Bahamas through eastern Cuba to just east of Jamaica. Scattered showers are noted through the Jamaica Channel between Jamaica and southeast Cuba to as far west as south of Grand Cayman Island. Regional radar is showing isolated showers across the Windward and Leeward Islands in moderate trade wind flow, except for scattered showers farther south over Trinidad and Tobago where fresh trade winds are noted. Generally fair conditions are noted elsewhere. Scatterometer data is indicating fresh to strong trade winds are noted across the south central Caribbean, likely reaching near gale off the coast of Colombia. For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean through Wed. Winds will freshen over the eastern Caribbean Mon night and Tue. Long period northerly swell will propagate through tropical Atlantic waters and the Caribbean Passages through Sat. Long period E swell will pass through the tropical Atlantic waters Sun night through Tue night, then subside Wed. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An mid to upper level disturbance move over the southeast United States is support scattered showers and thunderstorms off the northeast coast of Florida, ahead of a frontal boundary stalling across Georgia. Farther east, a weak ridge persists along 29N, maintaining gentle to light winds across the Atlantic north of 20N, and moderate to fresh trades farther south. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over open waters west of 65W, and 6 to 9 ft between 35W and 65W. Over the tropical Atlantic, divergence aloft on the southeast side of an upper trough along with modest trade wind convergence is supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms north of the ITCZ west of 27W. Farther east, Saharan dust covers much of the region north of 10N east of 35W. Recent scatterometer passes indicate fresh to occasionally strong trade winds, with seas generally 8 to 12 ft in NE swell. For the forecast over the W Atlantic, high pressure ridging along 28N/29N will linger over the forecast waters through Sun. A cold front will move off the Florida coast Mon afternoon, then move SE across the forecast waters to extend from SE of Bermuda near 31N62W to near the Windward Passage by Wed evening. Strong winds preceding and following the front will affect the waters N of 28N Tue night through Wed night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Christensen