000 AXNT20 KNHC 220605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... A tight pressure gradient between a high pressure over the Atlantic building southward over the western Atlantic and low pressures inland over Colombia will enable winds to pulse to gale force at night, over the next few days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front is forecast in 24 hours to enter the central Atlantic from 31N30W to 27N38W. A Gale Warning is in effect for the area N of 30N between 37W-40W, with seas 16 to 20 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the Liberian coastline near 05N09W to 00N12W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 04S37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 250 nm south of the ITCZ between 25W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the coast of Louisiana near 29N92W to a 1010 mb surface low centered near 27N95W. A surface trough extends south of the low pressure to the Bay of Campeche near 22N95W. Moderate to fresh southwesterly winds are prevailing across most of the basin while light to gentle winds prevail south of the low/front. A second surface trough near 22N89W extends south into the Yucatan Peninsula. No significant convection is noted in the vicinity of the trough. The 1010 mb low pressure will dissipate on Fri as the front transitions to a warm front that moves inland by early Fri evening. A cold front will move off the Texas coast on Sat afternoon, reach from the Florida Big Bend to the SW Gulf by Sun evening, from near SW Florida the SW Gulf of Mexico on Mon then become stationary and weaken through Tue night. Areas to patches of dense fog are possible at night and into the morning hours through Fri near the outermost boundary of the NW and N Central waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fair weather prevails across the basin supported by dry air in the mid-and upper-levels of the atmosphere. Satellite images do show patches of low clouds and perhaps embedded isolated showers moving within the trade wind flow. Fresh to strong trade winds are over the central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh winds cover the remainder of the basin. High pressure northeast of the region will maintain fresh to strong trade winds mainly within the central Caribbean, and north of Honduras through the next several days. Gale-force winds will pulse overnight near the coast of Colombia. Long period north to northeast swell will propagate through the Atlantic waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles beginning late today before dissipating Sun through Monday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging extends across the west Atlantic anchored by a 1027 mb high near 29N60W. To the east, a cold front enters the discussion area near 31N30W and extends through 27N38W. A stationary front extends from 31N24W to 21N39W, then transitions to dissipating stationary front to 18N53W. No significant convection is related to this front at this time. Scatterometer data show a fairly large region of fresh winds north of the front to 30N, then stronger winds north of the area. Weather conditions are quiet over the eastern and tropical Atlantic, supported by surface high centered north of the region, as well as dry air aloft. High pressure over the area will slide eastward and weaken through Sat in response to an approaching cold front. The front will move across the northwest part of the area Sun night, then reach from near 31N69W to 27N76W and to S Florida by Mon afternoon and become stationary from near 25N65W to S Florida Tue. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to strong east winds to the northern and central waters Tue and Tue night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres