000 AXNT20 KNHC 150702 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 202 AM EST Fri Feb 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W and extends to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 04S37W. Scattered showers are noted along the monsoon trough between 16W-18W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high pressure is centered over northern Florida and extends across the basin. Partly cloudy skies prevail with no significant convection. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin. Surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the weekend, producing mainly a southerly return flow. The next cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning and extend from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by Sun night. Then, the front is forecast to stall across the northern Gulf waters through Tue morning, lifting N toward the northern Gulf states by late Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak low pressure is off the east-central Cuba near 22N77W with a stationary front extending south into the NW Caribbean to another low pressure near 19N82W. A remnant trough extends to the south of the low pressure to 15N69W. An upper-level trough axis extends from the western Atlantic across the NW Caribbean to Guatemala. Just east of the upper trough axis, upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection north of 18N along the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, no significant convection is noted. Moderate to fresh trades currently cover the eastern and central Caribbean mainly east of 73W while a gentle to moderate trades cover the southern and NW Caribbean sea. A weak low pressure area near 19N82W will dissipate tonight, with a remnant trough prevailing through early Fri. Moderate to fresh winds will dominate the central and eastern Caribbean waters through Sat night. Winds and seas will then increase in the southern Caribbean early on Sunday due to high pressure building north of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are expected along the coast of Colombia Sun night through Tue night, with gale conditions possible on Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front over the western Atlantic extends from 31N66W to a 1014 mb low near 25N73W. A stationary front extends from the low to 22N77W. An upper-level trough axis extends from the western Atlantic across the NW Caribbean to Guatemala. Just east of the upper trough axis, upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection north of 18N along the Windward Passage into the central-eastern Bahamas and western Atlantic mainly west of 62W. Scattered showers cover the area within 180 nm on either side of the frontal system, Farther east, a 1030 mb high is centered near 31N45W, and extends across most of the central and eastern Atlantic. A cold front is analyzed from 31N18W to 22N35W to 22N44W to a dissipating cold front. Moderate to fresh winds prevail behind this front. The front associated with a 1014 mb low pressure located near NE of the Bahamas will remain stationary on Fri. A second low further south in the NW Caribbean will likely merge, with the predominant low exiting the forecast area by Fri night. A trough, associated with the low will persist over the NE waters through late Sat. Then, a ridge will dominate the region through Mon. A cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida by late Mon, and extend across the waters N of 27N on Tue. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres