000 AXNT20 KNHC 120003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 803 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Michael is centered near 36.1N 78.8W at 11/2100 UTC or 20 nm NNW of Raleigh North Carolina moving NE at 21 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Storm motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast at an even faster forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. Gale to storm-force winds are expected over portions of southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva Peninsula late tonight and Friday morning when Michael becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 7 inches from north-central North Carolina, into south- central to southeast Virginia, including the southern Delmarva Peninsula. Isolated maximum totals of 9 inches are possible in North Carolina and Virginia. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC for more details. Hurricane Leslie centered near 29.9N 36.5W at 11/2100 UTC or 680 nm SW of the Azores moving ENE at 19 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. The government of Portugal has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Madeira Island. A continued east-northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Friday. Leslie is forecast to slow down and turn toward the east or east-southeast by Saturday. On the forecast track, Leslie will pass near Madeira Island by late Saturday. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and early Friday, but steady weakening is forecast to begin by Friday night. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 27N-35N between 33W-41W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Nadine centered near 14.5N 34.9W at 11/2100 UTC or 610 nm W of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Nadine is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected tonight and early Friday. A turn toward the west with an increase in forward speed is anticipated by Friday night. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Nadine is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure over the weekend. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 14N-16N between 31W-35W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 51W from 05N-19N based on the satellite imagery and observations. Maximum in Total Precipitable Water is noted with the wave. Scattered showers are near the wave axis particularly North of 14N. The remnants of a tropical wave is near Jamaica. This feature is now a surface trough from 18N79W to 12N79W nearly stationary. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed where the ITCZ encounters the monsoon trough in the southwest Caribbean. In this area, a broad area of low pressure is expected to develop in the next day or two. This system is forecast to slowly move westward toward Central America through early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to support some slow development, however, interaction with land could limit the chance of formation once the system approaches Central America on Monday or Tuesday. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Senegal near 13N17W and continues westward to near 12N27W, then resumes southwest of Tropical Cyclone Nadine from 10N35W to 08N48W. Other than the convection mentioned above associated with Nadine, scattered showers are south of the Monsoon Trough to the equator between 05W and 31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from N Florida near 31N83W to the central Gulf near 25N90W to 25N97W. Isolated moderate convection is along the and within 240 nm S of the front, in the warm sector. This front will continue moving southeast reaching the Florida Peninsula this weekend. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds across the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low is over the W Caribbean near 16N82W. A Central American Gyre is developing in the southwest Caribbean enhancing convection between 73W-82W. In the same area, a surface trough has been analyzed. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details about this feature. To the east, a diffluent flow aloft prevails over the northeast Caribbean enhancing convection across the waters south of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Expect moderate tradewinds to prevail across the eastern Caribbean Sea through Friday. Moderate NE swell from Hurricane Leslie will move through the Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages through Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for information on Hurricane Leslie, Tropical Storm Nadine, and the tropical wave along 51W. Scattered showers prevail across the west Atlantic west of 77W due to T.S. Michael's rainband. To the east, a 1018 mb high is centered near 32N60W. Another 1017 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 28N22W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa