000 AXNT20 KNHC 200000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient continues between high pressure in the western Atlantic and lower pressure in northern sections of South America. This pattern supports winds pulsing to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night through the week. Wave heights within the area of gale force winds will range between 12-16 ft. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W southwestward to 02N18W. The ITCZ crosses the equator near 21W and remains south of the discussion area to the coast of South America. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-04N between 11W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends westward across the entire basin from the west Atlantic. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate southeasterly winds across the whole area. Satellite imagery shows isolated shallow convection in the SE Gulf and mostly clear weather elsewhere. Expect increasing winds and building seas through Wed as high pressure strengthens in the western Atlantic. A thermal trough will develop over the western Yucatan Peninsula each evening through mid week, drift westward across the Bay of Campeche during overnight hours, then dissipate in the SW Gulf by late morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about a Gale Warning in effect near the coast of Colombia. A tight pressure gradient across the basin created by the combination of a high pressure over the Atlantic and lower pressure over NW Colombia is producing strong east winds between 70W-80W, while moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. The high pressure will strengthen overnight into Wednesday, and increase winds and build seas east of 80W in the Caribbean and the Tropical N Atlantic waters through mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad area of high pressure centered north of 30N prevails across the basin. A weakness in the ridge is noted as a surface trough that extends from 31N43W to 26N50W. A cold front has pushed southward to roughly along 29N between 50W-65W, then it becomes stationary as it extends northwestward to coastal Georgia at 31N80W. Scattered low clouds are observed along the frontal boundary. The front will become stationary overnight and dissipate early Tuesday. The existing area of high pressure will be fortified by a stronger subtropical high through mid-week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell