000 AXNT20 KNHC 201207 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 707 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The trade wind flow in the south-central Caribbean is expected to reach gale-force early Sunday morning near the coast of Colombia. A Gale Warning is currently in effect for this area. See the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 07N12W and continues to 03N18W. The ITCZ begins near 03N18W and extends westward to 0N41W. Scattered moderate rain showers are from 01N to 05N between 10W-16W and within 150 nm either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge prevails across the southeast CONUS and SW N Atlantic extendning westward across Florida and the Gulf. In the far western basin, a surface trough along Mexico adjacent waters continue to weaken. Radar and satellite imagery show isolated showers in the NW and SE Gulf. Latest scatterometer and surface observations depict light to moderate return flow across the Gulf. No major changes expected during this weekend. The next cold front will come off the coast of Texas Monday morning, extend from the Florida Big Bend SW to near Tuxpan, Mexico Tuesday morning and across South Florida to the central Gulf waters late Wednesday to Thursday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The southern end of a frontal boundary over the Atlantic is analyzed as a stationary front that extends across the Caribbean Sea from eastern Cuba, then becomes weak to just off the coast of Honduras. Scattered showers prevail in the vicinity of the front between 75W-85W. Similar activity lies south of 13N west of 80W aided by upper-level diffluent flow. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds are noted between 70W-82W, while moderate trades prevail elsewhere. The trade wind flow to the east of the front is expected to increase to gale-force near the coast of Colombia this weekend as high pressure builds to the north of the area. See the Special Features section for more details. ...HISPANIOLA... Partly cloudy skies and scattered showers prevail across the island as a stalled front lies just to the west of the area. This scenario will continue through the weekend. Fresh northeasterly winds will continue over the Windward Passage for another day as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is moving over the central Atlantic from 31N50W to 22N67W, then becomes stationary from that point to 21N74W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail along and west of the stationary front, while gentle to moderate winds are noted near the cold front. High pressure is building in the wake of the front across the west Atlantic. To the east of the front, a surface trough extends from 24N45W to 18N48W. Elsewhere, the Bermuda-Azores high dominates the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos