000 AXNT20 KNHC 021121 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 621 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N16W to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W to 06N52W. Scattered showers is noted 04N-08N between 38W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The mid to upper-level flow over the Gulf of Mexico is anticyclonic with generally westerly winds noted. Moderate to strong subsidence prevails over the entire basin which led to generally fair conditions overall. A surface trough extends from 30N84W to 26N93W. No convection is associated to this trough at this time. To the southwest, another surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche and the Yucatan Peninsula with scattered showers. Patchy fog is developing over the north central portion of the basin mainly north of 28N between 88W-92W. These conditions will dissipate by late this morning. Scatterometer data indicated generally light to moderate northeast winds over most of the basin, with winds becoming fresh near the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. Light to moderate northwest winds were noted west of the surface trough over the northern half of the basin and within 120 nm of the coast of Mexico. This trough is forecast to lift slowly northward today as southeast return flow resumes over the basin west of 92W. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid to upper-level flow over the Caribbean is anticyclonic in nature, west of 80W with generally westerly winds noted over the entire basin. Moderate to strong subsidence was noted over most of the basin with the strongest subsidence noted over Cuba. This resulted in generally fair conditions overall. The monsoon trough is along 10N between 77W and 84W, continuing into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered showers are noted over portions of Panama and Costa Rica. Scatterometer data and surface observations depict generally light to moderate easterly winds across the basin with fresh to locally strong winds within 60 nm of the coast of Colombia. Little change in the overall pattern is expected through the weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Mid to upper-level westerly winds with increasingly strong subsidence was noted over the island. With this, fair weather prevails across the area. Little change in conditions is expected through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid to upper-level trough extends across the west Atlantic along 70W. At the surface, a 1010 mb low is centered near 27N62W, with a dissipating stationary front extending from the low to 27N53W. To the east, a 1011 low is near 28N50W. A warm front extends from this low to 28N45W. Scattered moderate convection prevails with these features mainly north of 23N between 45W-62W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1020 mb high near 27N23W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA