000 AXNT20 KNHC 270521 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1221 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 08N23W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends just west of a surface trough near 04N25W to 04N38W, then resumes west of another surface trough near 04N43W to 03N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 12N between 21W and 43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge axis extends S across the western Gulf from high pressure centered over Arkansas. This is supporting generally fair weather and moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds over this portion of the basin. The only exception is showers associated with a surface trough that is just offshore the Mexico coast from 26N97W to 20N97W. Over the eastern Gulf, a 1014 mb low is centered near 25N86W. Surface troughing extends from 28N85W to the low center to 23N83W, and from the low center to near 22N90W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the low center. Mainly moderate NE winds cover the eastern Gulf, except locally fresh near the low center. Over the next 24 hours the low will drift SW and weaken. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from 20N81W to 12N82W. The northern portion of the trough is interacting with an upper level trough to the west to support scattered moderate convection from 16N to 22N between 77W and 85W. Scattered thunderstorms are W of the trough axis S of 16N. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are W of the trough axis. Moderate easterly trades dominate the remainder of the Caribbean except fresh near the coasts of Venezuela and NE Colombia. The E Pacific monsoon trough extends east from Panama to near 09N75W supporting scattered thunderstorms S of 12N W of 75W. Over the next 24 hours a trough over the SE Gulf will drift SW, decreasing winds over the extreme NW Caribbean and increasing chances for thunderstorms. Winds along the coast of Nicaragua are expected to increase to near 25 kt. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers and thunderstorms are diminishing over the island as mid to upper level ridging builds NW over the region. These drier conditions are expected to prevail through Monday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N74W and extends to 29N81W. Little moisture is associated with this front. Another cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N59W and extends to 28N65W, where it transitions to a stationary front that extends to 25N72W to central Cuba near 21N78W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 25N67W to 28N76W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 180 nm of either side of the front. Over the central Atlantic, a 1018 mb high is centered near 25N57W, and another 1018 mb high is centered near 26N45W. A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N44W and extends to 28N47W to 26N54W. No significant convection is noted with this front. A surface trough void of deep convection extends from 21N58W to 15N58W. Over the eastern Atlantic, an upper trough supports scattered moderate convection from 13N to 22N between 18W and 26W. Over the next 24 hours the stationary front and cold front just east of Florida will dissipate. The other cold front over the W Atlantic will continue to move E. The central Atlantic cold front will weaken. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto