000 AXNT20 KNHC 151100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/29W from 11N southward, moving westward 20 knots. A 1012 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 05N. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 10N southward between 20W and 34W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W from 15N southward moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate to strong from 10N to 12N between 36W and 39W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knots. This wave is moving through an area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. Broken to overcast multilayered convective debris clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are between 60W and 68W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/81W from 18N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 13N to 16N between 78W and 81W, from 10N to 11N between 80W and 82W, and within 60 nm of the coast of Central America between 82W and 84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea near 11N15W to 08N20W and 06N25W. The ITCZ is along 04N29W 04N36W, and along 06N39W 05N51W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 03N to 10N between 12W and 17W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 10N southward, mostly between 40W and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough passes through south central sections of Georgia, to 25N85W in the Gulf of Mexico, across the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula, to the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are between 78W in the Atlantic Ocean and 88W in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes from the Atlantic Ocean, across central sections of Florida, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico near the Mexico coast along 22N. ...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KMZG and KEMK. CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... Texas: MVFR in inland/interior sections of the Lower Valley, and finally in the coastal plains, to Bay City and Jasper, and not the Houston metropolitan area. LOUISIANA: IFR at the NAS in New Orleans. MVFR in parts of the extreme SE corner of the state. MISSISSIPPI: IFR in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: IFR in Gulf Shores. LIFR from Evergreen to Dothan. FLORIDA: rainshowers and some thunder, with isolated areas of LIFR, from the Panama City metropolitan area westward. MVFR in Perry. light rain has ended for the moment in the Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area. LIFR at times in Punta Gorda. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge extends from Nicaragua to NW Cuba. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 74W westward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The cyclonic wind flow is related to the 30N59W- to-19N62W-to-13N67W trough, from the Atlantic Ocean into the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate rainshowers are between 60w and 68W. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers in Colombia from 05N to 11N between 73W and 77W, in an area of broad surface low pressure. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 15/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.09 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level NW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR for visibility. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. Puerto Plata: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A ridge will be to the west of Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that anticyclonic wind flow will span the entire area, either with an anticyclonic circulation center, or with a ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow will move across the area for the first six hours or so, with an inverted trough. SE wind flow will move across the area for the rest of the time, with Hispaniola being on the southern side of a north-to-south oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from a 30N59W cyclonic circulation center, to 19N62W, to 13N67W in the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean from 28N to 30N between 55W and 58W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere in the Atlantic Oceanfrom 23N northward between 50W and 70W, and from 28N northward between 70W and 80W. An upper level trough extends from a 29N27W cyclonic circulation center, to a 25N36W cyclonic circulation center, to 10N42W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent. A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that is near 35N25W, through 32N30W, to 25N59W, to central sections of Florida. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT