000 AXNT20 KNHC 221804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 06N18W and 04N20W. The ITCZ is along 04N20W 02N26W 02N30W, crossing the Equator along 31W, to 02S34W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 04N southward between 01W and 04W, and from 02N southward between 21W and 23W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from 04N to 05N within 30 nm on either side of 15W, from 02N southward between 28W and 29W, from 02N southward between 32W and 35W, and from 01N to 03N between 48W and 52W. isolated moderate elsewhere from 07N southward between Africa and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough extends from an east central Gulf of Mexico cyclonic circulation center, that is near 24N86W, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico beyond 19N96W at the coast of Mexico. A second upper level trough is moving through Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, and 25N91W, before blending with the cyclonic wind flow that corresponds to the 24N86W cyclonic circulation center and its trough. A surface trough is along 24N86W, through the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, into southern Belize. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 21N to 27N from 90W eastward. A surface ridge passes through SE Louisiana, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KHQI and KVOA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR in Laredo, Victoria, and Galveston. light rain is at the Houston Intercontinental Airport. IFR in Tomball. MVFR in Conroe and Huntsville. Heavy rain and MVFR in Jasper. LOUISIANA: MVFR in parts of the Lake Charles metropolitan area, and in Port Fourchon. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in Natchez. ALABAMA: MVFR in Gulf Shores. FLORIDA: MVFR in Pensacola metropolitan area. light rain Milton. smoke in parts of Ft. Myers and Naples. MVFR in Marathon Key. light rain at the Key West NAS. moderate rain at the Key West International Airport. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad middle level-to-upper level westerly wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea. An upper level ridge extends from Colombia to the Eastern Pacific Ocean near 08N90W. An east-to-west surface trough extends from SW Haiti to 18N80W, just to the west of Jamaica. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 15N to 18N between 73W and 76W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other possible rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea, the islands, and parts of the Atlantic Ocean from 15N to 27N between 66W and 80W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 22/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...1.67 in Kingston in Jamaica, 0.37 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, 0.12 in Guadeloupe, 0.01 in Nassau in the Bahamas, and a trace in Freeport in the Bahamas. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle level-to-upper level westerly wind flow, slightly anticyclonic, is moving across the island. Hispaniola is on the eastern side of a ridge that extends from Colombia to the Eastern Pacific Ocean near 08N90W. An east-to-west surface trough extends from SW Haiti to 18N80W, just to the west of Jamaica. Convective precipitation: rain inland and in the coastal waters. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. the earlier light rain has ended for the moment. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: nearby rainshowers. MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 2000 feet. earlier nearby rainshowers have ended for the moment. Puerto Plata: light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that westerly wind flow will prevail, until the last 6 hours to 12 hours, with SW wind flow during that time period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that SW wind flow, with a trough, will move across Hispaniola during the next 48-hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that broad anticyclonic wind flow, with a ridge, will span the area. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A large-scale cyclonic circulation center is near 38N44W, associated with the remnant of ARLENE. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward between 30W and 63W. A dissipating stationary front curves through 32N36W to 26N40W and 21N46W. A cold front passes through 32N42W to 29N46W and 28N50W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 26N to 29N between 22W and 26W, and from 28N northward between 25W and 43W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in areas of scattered-to-broken low level clouds, that are from 20N northward between 30W and 70W. A surface ridge extends from a 1021 mb high pressure center that is near 32N18W , to 26N24W, and 19N32W. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 28N65W. A surface ridge extends from the high center beyond 30N80W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT