000 AXNT20 KNHC 310500 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 15N17W to 07N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 01N22W to the Equator near 23W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 02N-06N between the Prime Meridian and 09W. Isolated moderate convection is S of 04N between 09W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough axis extends from over the lower Mississippi River valley SW to a base over the western Gulf near 25N95W. As of 31/0300 UTC...this troughing supports a cold front that extends from SE Louisiana SW to 24N97W and a pre-frontal surface trough from 28N90W to 21N93W. East of the boundaries scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of 25N between 83W- 89W across portions of the NE Gulf waters...Florida panhandle... and northern Florida peninsula. In wake of the front...weak surface ridging continues building in across the NW Gulf anchored by a 1012 mb high centered near 28N95W. Mainly moderate southerly winds prevail E of the front as it continues eastward through Friday night. The front will clear the basin into Saturday as fresh to strong SE winds re-establish across the western Gulf through the weekend as an area of low pressure develops across the southern Plains. CARIBBEAN SEA... Conditions remain relatively tranquil across the basin this evening as an middle to upper level ridge prevails over the western Caribbean and mostly dry northwesterly flow aloft over the eastern Caribbean. Within the NW flow...a shear line extends from Guadeloupe to 15N68W. Low-level moisture convergence is maximized across the eastern Caribbean in the vicinity of the shear line generating isolated showers generally from 14N-17N between 62W- 72W. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades continue and are expected to persist through the weekend into early next week. ...HISPANIOLA... Strong subsidence is noted on water vapor imagery over the island this evening...however low-level moisture and cloudiness continues to impact south-central portions of the island with possible isolated shower activity generally S of 19N between 70W- 72W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A vigorous middle to upper level low is centered over the north-central North Atlc near 41N52W that supports a cold front entering the discussion area near 32N49W. The front extends SW to 27N60W to 25N70W with isolated showers possible within 60 nm either side of the front. The remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high centered off the NE CONUS near 40N71W. Within the southwestern periphery of the ridge...a stationary front extends from 28N75W NW to the southern South Carolina coast near 32N81W. Isolated showers are occurring within 120 nm NE of the front. The surface ridge is forecast to slide eastward through Friday as southerly winds increase into fresh to strong breeze levels generally N of 28N W of 73W as a cold front approaches the SE CONUS coastline. By early Saturday the cold front will have emerged off the coast and into the SW North Atlc waters ushering in a round of gentle to moderate northerly winds. Farther east...a dissipating cold front... likely the first frontal wave of energy associated with the vigorous North Atlc upper level low...extends from 32N38W SW to 23N50W to Guadeloupe in the Lesser Antilles near 16N61W. Widely scattered showers and possible isolated tstms are occurring generally N of 22N between 33W and the boundary. Lastly...across the eastern Atlc...a surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high centered W of the Madeira Islands near 33N20W is providing mostly fair conditions and clear skies E of a ridge axis extending from the high SW to 16N49W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN