000 AXNT20 KNHC 271710 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... Winds are forecast to increase across the central Caribbean this evening as a high pressure builds over the southwest Atlantic. Strong nocturnal flow is expected along the northwest coast of Colombia, with gale conditions during the evening, overnight, and early morning hours, starting this evening through Thursday. Seas are forecast to build to 13 ft near the coast of Colombia. See the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WHO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 00N30W to the coast of South America at 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough from 01N-04N between 07W- 11W. Widely scattered moderate convection is over a large area within 240 nm either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1032 mb high is centered off the coast of Virginia near 37N72W producing 10-20 kt SE surface flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Fair weather is over the Gulf. In the upper levels, zonal flow is over the Gulf with strong subsidence. Expect fair weather over most of the Gulf over the next 24 hours as the surface high moves E. Morning fog is possible along the N Gulf States, between Corpus Christi Texas and Pensacola Florida. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is over the far W Caribbean Sea from Cozumel Mexico to San Pedro Sula Honduras moving W. Scattered showers are from 18N-22N between 85W-88W. 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. More scattered showers are over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. Furthermore, scattered showers are now advecting over the Windward Islands from the Atlantic. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over the W Caribbean near 18N80W. Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean and Central America. Expect gale-force winds along the coast of Colombia starting this evening. See above. Also expect clusters of scattered showers to move W over the Caribbean, within the tradewind flow, during the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola moving W in the tradewind flow. Water vapor imagery shows very dry air/strong subsidence aloft over the entire island, thus thunderstorms are not likely. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough, the remnants of a cold front, is over the west Atlantic from 31N55W to 27N60W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. A 1028 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 32N46W. Another surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N41W to 28N46W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of this trough. A 1030 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 36N31W. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over the E Atlantic N of 20N E of 45W. Expect over the next 24 hour for another cold front to dip into the central Atlantic and reach 31N47W with showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa