000 AXNT20 KNHC 091052 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 552 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...West Atlantic Gale Warning... The pressure gradient generated by the interaction of the broad area of high pressure that prevails across the Atlantic and the low pressure centers that across the eastern CONUS support gale- force winds mainly north of 29N and west of 77W. These conditions will prevail though the next 6 hours. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...Caribbean Gale Warning... The pressure gradient between a high pressure north of the region and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean during the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia through the early morning hours. Model guidance show seas building to 8 to 12 ft over the region with the strongest winds. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 09N13W to 05N23W. The ITCZ continues from 05N23W to 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 300 nm south of the boundaries between 10W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has entered the northwest Gulf extending from 29N97W to 30N93W. No significant convection is related to this boundary at this time. Latest observations indicate the development of patches of fog over the coastal waters north of 27N and west of 88W due to a moist and warm air spreading over relatively cooler waters. A surface ridge dominates the remainder of the basin with fair weather. Gentle to moderate southwesterly winds are noted over the northern half of the basin while southeasterly winds prevail elsewhere. Expect for the fog to dissipate in the late morning hours. The cold front will move quickly across the basin, pushing through South Florida by this afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected in the wake of the front, with seas building to 8 ft. By Friday, a high pressure will move into the western Atlantic, extending a ridge once again across the Gulf region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Please, see the Special Features section above for details. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the central and east Caribbean while lighter winds are noted over the western Caribbean mainly west of 80W. A fast-moving cold front will reach western Cuba and the northwest Caribbean by this evening with convection. The front will move across Cuba and the west Caribbean on Friday while gradually weakening. As a high pressure build in the wake of the front, expect increasing northeasterly winds across this area. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will move across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers through the next 48 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. By late Friday, an approaching frontal boundary will increase the likelihood of showers across the island as well as the adjacent waters. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Gale-force winds are forecast across the west Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. A cold front extends from 32N65W to 27N68W with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms affecting the waters between 63W-69W. A surface trough extends south of this front from 26N70W to 23N73W. No significant convection is related to this trough currently. A 1035 mb surface high is centered near 35N39W and extends a ridge across the majority of the forecast area. South of the ridge, mainly fresh trade winds are noted across the central Atlantic, particularly south of 20N, and east of the Lesser Antilles. These winds are expected to persist through the day. A strong cold front will move rapidly across the western Atlantic today, and reach from 31N61W to the southeast Bahamas and eastern Cuba by Friday morning. The cold front currently near 30N65W will continue moving east with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA