000 AXNT20 KNHC 040541 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST SUN DEC 4 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning...The cold front currently in the west Atlantic will move to 32N47W along 26N60W to 25N75W with southwest gale force winds north of 30N east of the front to 42W starting at 04/1200 UTC. These winds will shift east with the front through 05/1200 UTC. Please see the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 7N11W to 4N16W where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues along 4N21W 5N31W 4N44W to South America near 4N51W. Small clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 90 nm of a line from 1N at the Prime Meridian along 4N9W to 7N15W. Large clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 2N-8N between 26W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper ridge dominates the Gulf again tonight anchored in the Caribbean giving the Gulf southwest to west flow aloft. A deep layered trough over the western CONUS is digging south to over western Mexico further amplifying the upper ridge. A stationary front extends across northeast Mexico and south Texas just west then north of Brownsville into the Gulf along 28N95W to inland along the coast of Louisiana near Lake Charles. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are within 60 nm east of the front over the northwest Gulf. Scattered showers cover the remainder of the northwest Gulf west of a line from Mobile, Alabama across southeast Louisiana along 28N93W to northeast Mexico near 24N97W. The front will meander over the northwest Gulf through Sunday night. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds are over most of the Gulf waters and will become moderate to fresh southeast to south winds on Sunday. A cold front will move across the Gulf Monday and Tuesday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge is anchored over western Panama dominating the Caribbean again tonight. At the surface: a surface trough extends from 17N80W along 13N78W to Colombia near 11N74W. Clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 150 nm northeast of the surface trough and from 17N-20N between 75W-87W. This is leaving the east Caribbean with clear skies tonight. The surface trough will move west and weaken through Sunday. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic will shift southeast into the coming week creating fresh trade winds across the Caribbean. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms continue to dot the island again tonight. Lingering moisture and easterly trade winds could continue to produce showers across the island through the Sunday night with some possible clearing on Monday. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends over the west Atlantic. The surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high over Ohio is moving into the west Atlantic west of 65W. An upper trough over the central Atlantic is supporting a cold front that extends through 32N49W along 28N61W to 25N71W where it dissipates as a stationary front across the central Bahama Islands to 24N81W in the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers are within 60 nm east of the front east of 61W. A weak surface trough is south of the front extending from 27N60W 23N64W to north of Puerto Rico near 19N67W with isolated showers possible within 90 nm east of the trough. A surface ridge covers the central and eastern Atlantic north of 20N anchored by a 1018 mb high near 23N34W and a 1017 mb high near 22N53W. A surface trough is south of the surface ridge extending from 16N51W through 11N54W to the coast of South America near 6N55W. This surface trough is beneath the upper trough that covers the central Atlantic with an east/west upper ridge to the east. The upper ridge is providing difflunce aloft to generate clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 8N-20N between 35W-47W. The west Atlantic cold front will reach from 32N47W along 26N60W to 25N75W by early Sunday with southwest gale force winds east of the front through Monday morning. See Special Features above. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW