000 AXNT20 KNHC 072331 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 731 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Matthew is centered near 30.2N 80.7W at 07/2100 UTC or about 35 nm E of Jacksonville, Florida, moving north at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt making Matthew a category 2 hurricane. Numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail north of 27N between 75W-82W affecting portions of northeast Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. The center of Matthew will continue to move near the coast of northeast Florida and Georgia through tonight, and near or over the coast of South Carolina on Saturday. Matthew will remain as a hurricane until it begins to move away from the United States on Sunday. The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tides, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. T.S. Nicole center is located near 27.0N 65.2W or 317 nm south of Bermuda. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are from 22N-27N between 62W-67W. Swells associated with Nicole, along with rough surf conditions, will continue to affect Bermuda during the next few days. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the east Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands with axis extending from 16N30W to 04N30W, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Abundant moisture is depicted in TPW imagery surrounding this wave. Cloudiness and isolated showers prevail along and east of the wave axis between 20W-30W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 20N44W to 06N47W, moving west at 10 kt within the last 18 hours. TPW imagery depicts a surge of moisture between 40W-50W and model guidance show an inverted trough at 700 mb in this area also. Isolated showers have developed along the wave's axis south of 12N. A tropical wave in the Caribbean with axis extending from 19N63W to 10N65W, moving west at 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Low-level moisture and an upper-level diffluent flow support scattered showers south of 15N between 60W-67W affecting the Windward Islands. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 14N17W to 06N30W to 07N32W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 09N47W to 08N57W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, no convection is observed along these boundaries at this time. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... Northwesterly strong to near gale-force winds prevail north of 27N east of 85W associated with Hurricane Matthew that is located over the west Atlantic and moving north along the northern Florida coastline. moves along NE Florida coastal waters. Light to moderate northeasterly winds are depicted in scatterometer data across the remainder of the basin. Fair weather prevails across the basin at this time. A cold front will push into the northwest Gulf by Saturday reaching from southern Florida to southern Mexico on Sunday. Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected north of the front, with seas building to 8-9 ft near the coast of Veracruz. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The main feature in the Caribbean is a tropical wave moving across the eastern portion of the basin generating showers across the Windward Islands and adjacent waters. See the section above for more details. An upper-level low is centered near 16N76W. This feature combined with the Monsoon Trough that extends along 10N between 76W-82W is enhancing convection across the western Caribbean waters and central America mainly west of 76W. Light and variable winds prevail across the western Caribbean west of 80W while gentle to moderate trades dominate the central and eastern waters. Expect during the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue moving west with convection. A similar weather pattern will prevail elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time supported by strong subsidence aloft. Scattered showers are expected to develop across the island by Saturday ahead of a tropical wave that currently is located east of Puerto Rico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Hurricane Matthew continues over the west Atlantic waters while T.S. Nicole is centered along 65W. Please refer to the section above for details. Two tropical waves are moving across the central and east Atlantic. For more information, see the section above. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a weak surface ridge anchored by a 1016 mb high centered near 28N50W. Expect through the next 24 hours for Matthew to continue moving northward while Nicole will drift south. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA