000 AXNT20 KNHC 050556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Matthew is centered near 20.7N 74.4W at 05/0300 UTC or about 30 nm north-northwest of the eastern tip of Cuba and about 70 nm west-southwest of Great Inagua Island, Bahamas moving north at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt making Matthew a category 3 hurricane. Scattered to numerous strong convection is within 60 nm of the center over the south semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection covers the remainder of the area from 16N-21N between 68W-76W, including Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 24.2N 61.3W at 05/0300 UTC or about 438 nm northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico moving west-northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of a line from 22N62W 23N59W to 24N59W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 15N57W to 7N57W moving west-northwest at 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough south of 13N and remains embedded within a surge of moisture. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of a line from 16N41W 14N48W to 15N57W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from a 1009 mb low inland over west Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 12N16W to 10N19W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 7N22W 6N29W 4N35W to 3N46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 4N-8N between 27W-46W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 4N-9N between 46W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper ridge anchored over south/central Mexico extends an upper ridge axis into the Gulf near Tuxpan to the Florida panhandle near Tallahassee. A shortwave upper trough is moving through the upper ridge from along the Louisiana and Texas border to 26N93W generating scattered showers and a possible stray thunderstorm north of 26N between 90W-94W to inland over Louisiana. A narrow upper trough extends from over northeast Florida near Jacksonville through an upper low near 24N86W to along the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula generating isolated showers from 27N-29N between 83W-87W. A weak surface ridge is building south over the northeast Gulf anchored by a 1027 mb high over Pennsylvania. Winds and seas will increase over the east Gulf late Wednesday through Friday as Hurricane Matthew moves north across the Bahamas and along the east coast of Florida. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The primary concern tonight is Hurricane Matthew moving away from eastern Cuba. See Special Features above. The upper trough over the east Gulf of Mexico extends along the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula covering the northwest Caribbean west of 83W. The remainder of the Caribbean is dominated by an upper ridge associated with Hurricane Matthew. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are inland and within 45 nm along the coast of Nicaragua from 12N-14N. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are over the east Caribbean north of 13N east of 75W including the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Hurricane Matthew is expected to track northwest along the Bahama Island chain but could continue to give Cuba showers and thunderstorms Wednesday with tranquil conditions moving in by Thursday. A tropical wave will move into the east Caribbean Thursday night. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the island tonight as Hurricane Matthew is moving away from eastern Cuba. Hurricane and Tropical Storm conditions will continue across the island through Wednesday with conditions improving Wednesday night into Thursday. Rain amounts of 4 to 8 inches have been reported around the island with the highest amount in Santo Domingo. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A main concern tonight is Hurricane Matthew moving out of the Caribbean to over the Bahama Island chain and toward the southeastern CONUS. A secondary concern is Tropical Storm Nicole northeast of Puerto Rico. See Special Features above. A narrow upper trough extends along the eastern seaboard from North Carolina across northeast Florida near Jacksonville into the east Gulf of Mexico. A broader upper trough over the northwest Atlantic continues to support a frontal boundary north of the area with a surface trough extending from 31N77W to 28N80W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 28N between 70W-74W. The upper ridge associated with Hurricane Matthew is providing difflunce aloft to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of a line from 28N78W to 25N70W to 20N64W, including all of the Bahama Islands, the Turks and Caicos, and the Greater Antilles. Isolated showers and thunderstorms dot the area from 17N-22N between 50W-60W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high in the central Atlantic near 31N53W and a trio of 1021 mb highs in the east Atlantic near 31N37W, 34N31W, and 28N30W. A weak surface trough is between these weak highs extending from 31N33W along 29N37W to 28N44W. Matthew is expected to track north tonight with a turn to north-northwest expected on Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Wednesday night. Matthew will be moving through the Bahamas through Thursday, and is expected to be very near the east coast of Florida by Thursday evening through Friday tracking north- northwest. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW