000 AXNT20 KNHC 092356 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 756 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave extends its axis from 20N43W to a 1010 mb low near 12N42W. These features are moving W at 20 kt. The low remains embedded within the Monsoon Trough as a broad monsoonal gyre. At this time, scattered moderate convection is from 07N-17N between 34W-47W. This system is gradually becoming better organized, and conditions are forecast to be favorable for a tropical depression to form this weekend or early next week. Due to this, the system has a high chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends across the central Caribbean with axis from 19N74W to 10N76W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 70W-80W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis near 15N. No significant convection is noted on satellite imagery related to this wave at this time. A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula with axis extending from 22N87W to 14N89W, moving W at 15 kt. Abundant low- level moisture is noted in Total Precipitable Water imagery across the western Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico in association with the wave. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the northern portion of the wave north of 18N between 87W- 90W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the west African coast near 11N16W to 11N22W, then resumes near 15N25W to 12N42W to 09N45W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N45W to 06N53W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave along 43W, scattered moderate convection is 06N-12N and east of 25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula. Please refer to the section above for details. A 1014 mb surface low is centered in the Florida Straits near 24N80W. An elongated surface trough extends from near Grand Bahama Island into the low then SW across western Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is from 19N-24N between 73W-85W. An upper-level low is centered over the northwest Gulf near 29N95W enhancing isolated convection north of 26N between 94W-97W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1018 mb high centered over eastern Alabama. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle easterly winds across the basin. Expect through the next 24 hours for the low over the Florida Straits to move west. Gusty winds and the potential for heavy rainfall across Cuba and the Florida Keys is expected with strong winds and building seas across the adjacent marine areas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for details. The surface low centered over the Florida Straits is also enhancing convection across portions of Cuba and the northwestern Caribbean mainly north of 17N and west of 75W. Gusty winds and the potential for heavy rainfall across Cuba and the Florida Keys is expected with strong winds and building seas across the adjacent marine areas. To the east, a surface trough extends from the central Atlantic into the Virgin Islands area near 18N65W. Isolated convection is observed along this boundary. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Expect through the next 24 hours for the wave to continue moving west. Convection will continue across Cuba and west Caribbean as the low moves west away from the area. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather conditions prevail across the island supported by both unfavorable deep-layer wind shear and strong subsidence aloft within the NE flow. A surface trough analyzed across the NE Caribbean Sea will move west reaching the island during the weekend with increased probability of showers and thunderstorms expected. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Please refer to the Special Features section above for details. A diffluent flow generated between an elongated upper-level low centered near 30N75W and a broad upper-level anticyclone centered over the E Gulf of Mexico supports scattered showers and thunderstorms across the west Atlantic between 70W-80W. To the east; a surface trough extends from 25N72W to 28N67W to 31N64W with isolated convection. Another surface trough extends from 22N62W to 18N65W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the trough mainly north of 19N between 61W-65W. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic remains under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a stationary 1028 mb high centered near 35N41W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA