000 AXNT20 KNHC 110507 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 107 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 08N23W to 18N22W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 22W-27W. No significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this time. Tropical wave extends from 09N46W to 20N45W moving W at 10 kt. The wave coincides with a 700 mb troughing as depicted in the global models between 43W-52W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis near 20N. No significant convection is occurring with the wave at this time. Tropical wave extends from 11N71W to 20N70W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 69W-76W. No significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to 09N33W to 06N44W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N44W to 09N61W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N- 15N between 14W-20W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 12N-16N between 55W-61W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over eastern Texas near 31N96W and is providing much of the Gulf basin with northeasterly flow aloft. Embedded beneath this upper level ridging is a broad mid-level low and associated energy. Satellite imagery indicates plenty of scattered to broken cloudiness with isolated showers and tstms occurring mostly north of a surface ridge axis extending across the Florida peninsula to the SW Gulf. The strongest convective activity is noted on regional Doppler radar imagery N of 28N between 85W-92W. Otherwise...the surface ridge is anchored by a 1020 mb high centered off the coast of the Florida peninsula near 26N83W providing generally moderate anticyclonic winds with slightly stronger S-SW winds across the NE Gulf waters. This overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist across the basin through Sunday as the ridge axis gradually lifts northward through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Most of the active weather in the Caribbean basin is occurring in the adjacent coastal waters of Cuba. An area of strong tstms is occurring in the vicinity of 20N80W. Otherwise...a surface trough analyzed east of the Lesser Antilles along 58W is introducing scattered showers and tstms to the islands and portions of the eastern Caribbean from 12N-16N between 55W-65W. The other important feature is a tropical wave along 70W moving across the central Caribbean providing isolated showers and tstms generally across the waters N of 16N between 65W-75W...including Hispaniola. This activity is likely enhanced by favorable dynamics aloft due to the presence of an upper level low centered near 17N70W. The remainder of the basin is under relatively dry conditions aloft with mostly clear skies and fair conditions prevailing this evening. Trades will range from moderate to strong with the strongest winds generally remaining S of 14N between 70W-77W. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper level low is centered south of the island near 17N70W that will provide middle to upper level instability for the region during the day on Thursday. Isolated showers and tstms are anticipated as the upper level feature moves westward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level shortwave is noted on water vapor imagery in the vicinity of 28N78W that supports a surface trough analyzed across the NW Bahamas. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring in the vicinity of the boundary from 24N-29N between 74W-79W. To the northeast...an upper level trough extends across the central North Atlc and supports a stationary front analyzed from 36N50W to 30N60W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring from 27N-31N between 56W-66W. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge associated with high pressure well to the N-NE of the discussion area with axis extending from the Azores SW to 30N50W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN