000 AXNT20 KNHC 252354 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 754 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced to the 1800 UTC analysis. The wave's axis extends from 17N19W to 10N19W. The wave coincides with an inverted trough at 700 mb as noted in global model streamlines and a moisture surge is observed in its environment as depicted on SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the southern portion of the wave mainly south of 15N between 18W-24W. A tropical wave prevails in the east Tropical Atlantic with axis extending from 18N31W to 10N32W, moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 12 hours. The wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb low/trough as depicted in the global models. No deep convection is observed at this time as the wave remains in an area where Saharan dust and dry air prevails. A tropical wave in the west-central Atlantic with axis extending from 22N59W to 11N60W, moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No deep convection is observed at this time as the wave remains in an area where Saharan dust and dry air prevails. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough begins west of a tropical wave near 15N21W to 10N30W to 09N37W. The ITCZ begins near 09N37W to 06N58W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 120 nm south of the Monsoon Trough between 18W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level low is centered over the east Gulf near 27N85W extending its trough to over southeast Louisiana. At the surface, a 1015 mb low is centered near 29N90W with surface trough extending from the low to 27N84W. These features are generating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the basin north of 23N between 84W-96W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate cyclonic flow mainly north of 27N while a moderate southerly flow prevails south of 27N. Expect for the surface low and trough to dissipate within the next 24 hours. A thermal trough will move off the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula each evening through midweek. CARIBBEAN SEA... An inverted upper-level trough extends across the western portion of the basin supporting isolated convection mainly west of 78W. To the east, Saharan dust and dry air dominates the area inhibiting significant convection. Diurnal heating and the proximity of a surface trough supports isolated convection across eastern Cuba, western Hispaniola, and the Windward Passage. The Monsoon Trough extends over Panama supporting isolated convection across the southern Caribbean mainly south of 11N. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the whole basin. Expect within the next 24 hours for a tropical wave to move across the eastern portion of the basin. Isolated convection is possible with this feature. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are over the island at this time. This activity will dissipate overnight. Convection is expected once again over the next 24 hours as a tropical wave approaches. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. A surface trough extends across southern Bahamas to northeast Cuba with isolated convection south of 23N between 73W-77W. To the east, another surface trough extends from 30N66W to 31N62W with isolated convection. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 42N33W. Expect for the surface ridge to persist through the next 24 hours. The surface trough over the Bahamas will continue moving west with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA