000 AXNT20 KNHC 261803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 203 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis near 28W from 07N-15N, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. Saharan dry air and dust are within the wave environment, thus inhibiting convection development. A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis near 76W S of 15N to inland Colombia, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave coincides with a broad inverted trough at 700 mb and a moderate moist environment from surface to 850 mb as shown by CIRA LPW imagery. Strong deep layer wind shear in the vicinity of the wave limits in part the convection to isolated showers S of 15N between 70W and 78W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 10N14W and then continues along 8N21W to 6N28W where the ITCZ begins and then extends to 7N44W to 6N57W. Scattered showers are from 4N-10N E of 24W. Similar shower activity is from 6N-10N between 37W and 58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The remnants of a surface trough continues to generate scattered showers and isolated tstms within 60 nm off the Mexico eastern coast from Tampico to Veracruz. In the central Gulf, a surface trough extends from 28N86W to 24N90W with scattered showers and tstms from 24N-28N E of 91W. Otherwise, gentle variable winds cover the basin. Surface ridge will persist through the middle of the week, except for the SW Gulf where a weak surface heat trough will be present. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper low centered NE of Puerto Rico extends a trough into the north-central and portions of the NW Caribbean. To the east, an upper ridge anchored over the west Tropical Atlantic covers the south-central and SE Caribbean. A diffluent flow generated by these two upper features along with shallow moisture support scattered to isolated showers S of 15N E of 70W and across the Leeward Islands. Abundant moisture in the SW basin along with a divergent environment aloft support numerous heavy showers and scattered tstms S of 15N W of 78W. Otherwise, a tropical wave is moving across the south-central basin. See waves section above for details. Fresh to strong trades continue in the central basin generated by a strong gradient between low pres associated with the wave in the S-SW Caribbean and high pres to the N-NE. Near- gale force winds are possible along the coast of Colombia and adjacent waters. These winds will continue beyond the next two days. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper level low centered NE of Puerto Rico extends a trough SW across Hispaniola, which along with shallow moisture in the trade wind flow support isolated showers mainly over the center of the Island. he upper trough will move east of the area early Monday giving the island westerly flow aloft. The easterly trade winds coupled with daytime heating will continue to generate afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms across the island through the first of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level low and associated trough over the NW Atlc waters support a cold front that starts to dip in the SW N Atlc waters along 30N72W to W-SW to 30N81W. Scattered showers and tstms are within 200 nm ahead of the front. Broad high pressure prevails elsewhere across the basin being anchored by a 1038 mb high N-NW of the Azores near 43N31W. The surface ridge will persist through the middle of the week. The front will continue to sink south into the SW N Atlc waters later today through Monday night where it will dissipate. A weak low pressure may develop along the front before it dissipates. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ RAMOS