000 AXNT20 KNHC 072351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT MAY 07 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AREAS OF AGADIR AND CASABLANCA WHICH IS N OF 30N E OF 13W. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO- FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SECTIONS OF AGADIR AND CASABLANCA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W ALONG 6N17W TO 5N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N29W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W TO 42W WHERE IT DIPS S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE ITCZ TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 33W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 16W-21W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-4N E OF 5W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES ALONG 97W GIVING THE GULF NW FLOW ALOFT. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF E OF 91W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH ALONG THE SE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E THROUGH MON ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE W GULF. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES AND THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL OCCASIONALLY INCREASE SE FLOW TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... NW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT TO 20N71W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 18N74W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 9N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 17N INCLUDING MOST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 12N TO OVER PANAMA. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE NW OF THE FRONT GIVING THE AREA CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. DRY AIR AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF FRONT GIVING THE SE CARIBBEAN CLEAR SKIES AS WELL. STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM THE SW TO NE THROUGH EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING E-SE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA TONIGHT THROUGH MON. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS MOST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS EVENING DUE TO A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC TO 20N71W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 18N74W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE S OF THE ISLAND BUT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY SUN BY THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A RE-DEVELOPED COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA ALONG 26N67W TO 20N71W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT CROSSES HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 210 NM E OF FRONT. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TRAILS THE ABOVE FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N68W 26N71W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 22N75W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 35N47W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE PORTION S OF 25N BECOMING STATIONARY FROM 25N65W TO NE HISPANIOLA SUN. ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO DRIFT W AS A TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW