000 AXNT20 KNHC 170530 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 05N09W TO 04N11W AND 04N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N13W TO 04N20W...CURVING TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 02S36W...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE FROM 08N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH 24N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO 25N80W AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 83W AND 91W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 29N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N92W 26N93W 24N94W. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... IFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KHHV...KXIH...KVQT...AND KSPR. MVFR CONDITIONS...KBQX...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KGLS AND LIGHT RAIN... KVBS...KEHC...KGHB...KEIR...KGRY...KMDJ...AND KDLP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...IFR AT THE CORPUS CHRISTI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION CORPUS CHRISTI...ROCKPORT...AND FROM VICTORIA TO PORT LAVACA TO PALACIOS...AND IN BAY CITY MVFR IN FALFURRIAS AND KINGSVILLE. MVFR FROM ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON TO GALVESTON AND BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA WITH SOME AREAS OF RAIN...MVFR FROM HOUSTON TO HUNTSVILLE AND JASPER. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE COASTAL PLAINS...INCLUDING AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA/FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND ACROSS THE LAND MASS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA-TO- EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WEST WIND FLOW REACHES JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 15N NORTHWARD. WEST WIND FLOW ALSO CROSSES NICARAGUA AND IT REACHES 80W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MOVING ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.07 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS HISPANIOLA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 5000 FEET...VFR...AT 17/0200 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 17/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO/LA ROMANA/PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO/PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48- HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. DAY TWO WILL CONSIST OF... FIRST...SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...EVENTUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROUGH EITHER WILL BE DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA...OR IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA...FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY ONE...WITH HISPANIOLA AT THE WESTERN END OF A RIDGE. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL BE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL BE TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA PLUS THE ALREADY-EXISTING RIDGE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO. THE REST OF THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY TWO WILL BE MORE RELATED TO JUST THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 36N63W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE CYCLONIC CENTER AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES 32N55W TO 26N60W 24N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO 25N80W AND 27N90W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 25N55W...TO THE COAST OF CUBA ALONG 79W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTH OF THE 32N55W- TO-25N80W COLD FRONT. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 40N34W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 33N16W 30N27W...TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N31W. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO 25N40W AND 26N47W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 26N47W...AND IT CONTINUES TO 29N51W AND 33N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N11W 25N29W 20N50W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A CANARY ISLANDS 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N15W...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N22W...TO A THIRD 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N43W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT