000 AXNT20 KNHC 211102 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN 48 HOURS... THE 48-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 13 FEET FROM 10.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...THROUGH A A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N99W...THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 06N14W AND 04N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N17W TO 01N25W AND 01N32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N SOUTHWARD FROM 42W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN U.S.A....THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A....INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W TO JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THROUGH THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF GUATEMALA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 60 NM TO 180 NM TO TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...FROM 17N IN COASTAL BELIZE TO NORTHWESTERN CUBA...AND BEYOND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...AND MORE NORTHEASTWARD TO 32N73W. MOISTURE AT MANY LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 29N81W IN FLORIDA...TO 25N90W TO 24N98W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE 29N81W 24N98W LINE. IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N83W 18N86W 16N87W AT THE COAST OF HONDURAS. IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO CUBA NEAR 22N78W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC... IS 0.01 IN BERMUDA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW STARTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA...IT CURVES TOWARD AND ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND THEN IT CURVES TOWARD THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY FROM 80W EASTWARD...AND FROM 16N NORTHWARD INCLUDING IN THE AREAS THAT ARE AROUND CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.08 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...IN THE AREAS AROUND CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SANTO DOMINGO/LA ROMANA/PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION ARE DIRECTLY RELATED TO SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE ORIENTATION OF A RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE WIND FLOW AROUND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AS THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER BECOMES MORE AND MORE STRETCHED OUT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N12W TO 23N22W 17N35W AND 05N44W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 50W WESTWARD. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-FLORIDA AND GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 05N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W...AND FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT