000 AXNT20 KNHC 190002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...EASTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG MOROCCO AND WESTERN SAHARA AFRICA CONTINUING OVER E ATLC WATERS FROM 25N15W TO 23N30W TO CENTRAL ATLC WATERS NEAR 30N44W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1047 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES GENERATES NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CANARIAS METEO- FRANCE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IN THE SW N ATLC WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS GENERATING GALE-FORCE WINDS FROM 10.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W EARLY SAT MORNING AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ELSEWHERE S OF 16N BETWEEN 73W AND 82W. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA NEAR 05N09W TO 04N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 00N27W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 01S TO 06N E OF 25W AND FROM 07S TO 02N W OF 25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD AND ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH N OF NEW YORK EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS...THE FAR WESTERN ATLC AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING THE BASIN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E FLOW E OF 90W AND E TO SE FLOW W OF 90W. WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E AND IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE SE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS...EXTENDING TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THIS REGION OF THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD AND STRONG SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND PROVIDES NE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS. AS THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA CONTINUE TO MOVE E...THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE NW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE...THUS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM EARLY FRI MORNING TO SAT AFTERNOON. THE WIND FETCH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND S TO 14N AND WILL INCLUDE THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA ADJACENT WATERS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN STARTING STARTING SAT MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. OTHERWISE...SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE GENTLE TRADES ACROSS THE N TO NE CARIBBEAN MAY ENHANCE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA BEING SUPPORTED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW MOISTURE IN GENTLE TRADEWIND FLOW ALONG WITH A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES E JUST N OF THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE W ATLC WATERS WITH BASE OVER THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. THE EASTERNMOST FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N63W SW TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 220 NM AHEAD OF IT N OF 23N. THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N68W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BEHIND THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT...STRONG HIGH PRES IS STARTING TO BUILD AND CURRENTLY SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS N OF 30N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W. BY FRIDAY THE FRONTS WILL MERGE AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS...SPREADING S TO THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK...NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. OVER THE EASTERN BASIN...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG MOROCCO AND WESTERN SAHARA AFRICA CONTINUING OVER E ATLC WATERS FROM 25N15W TO 23N30W TO CENTRAL ATLC WATERS NEAR 30N44W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1047 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES GENERATES NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CANARIAS METEO- FRANCE AREA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS