000 AXNT20 KNHC 210531 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE 36-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N87W TO 24N89W TO 18.5N95W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF 95W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 06N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N18W TO 03N33W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 36W...TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 08W AND 20W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 22W...AND MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 10N19W TO 06N30W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 46W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 30N81W TO 27N90W TO 22N98W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/ AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LIFR CONDITIONS...KGLS...KBVE. IFR CONDITIONS...KMIS. MVFR CONDITIONS...KGVX...KXIH...KIPN...KVKY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...IFR IN MCALLEN AND WESLACO. IFR IN EDINBURG. MVFR IN BROWNSVILLE. LIFR IN VICTORIA AND PORT LAVACA AND BAY CITY. THE CONDITIONS IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON HAVE BEEN CHANGING DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS...FROM LIFR TO IFR TO MVFR. LIFR IN SUGARLAND...PEARLAND...ELLINGTON AIRPORT-HOUSTON...AND GALVESTON. IFR AT THE HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT. LOUISIANA...IFR AND RAIN IN NEW IBERIA. LIFR IN BOOTHVILLE. LIFR AND IFR AROUND THE NORTHERN PARTS OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MVFR AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION NEW ORLEANS. MISSISSIPPI...HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR IN BILOXI. ALABAMA...MVFR AT THE MOBILE DOWNTOWN AIRPORT. FLORIDA...MVFR IN DESTIN. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 26N50W AND 22N60W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 22N60W TO EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM EAST TO WEST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W 25N50W...TO THE MONA PASSAGE...AND THEN IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO COASTAL SECTIONS OF EASTERN HONDURAS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.02 IN BERMUDA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 32N40W 26N50W 22N60W TO HISPANIOLA FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A BROADER ANTICYCLONIC WIND REGIME THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 40W WESTWARD. 600 MB TO 800 MB EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 09N TO 20N BETWEEN 53W AND 64W...BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 63W AND 77W. 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM JAMAICA TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA. 600 MB TO 800 MB IS ANTICYCLONIC FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 85W...FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TO PARTS OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.03 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM EAST TO WEST. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE OBSERVATION AT 21/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 21/0000 UTC IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...MVFR...IS IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. PUERTO PLATA REPORTED LIGHT RAIN AT 21/0000 UTC. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL SPAN THE AREA. EXPECT WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FOR DAY ONE...AND SOUTHWEST WIND FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE TO THE EAST...AND BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA RIDGE. EXPECT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW FOR DAY ONE. THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CHANGE TO SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF DAY TWO AS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 40W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA AND ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 08N35W TO 04N46W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N14W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N21W...TO 22N44W AND 19N61W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EVERYWHERE THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 32N40W-TO-HISPANIOLA FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT