000 AXNT20 KNHC 161130 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 984 MB SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER NW ATLANTIC NEAR 38N74W. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW REACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N70W TO 23N79W...THEN INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE TROUGH...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA MAINLY N OF 28N. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24...AND THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23. A 1003 MB SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY SUNDAY PUSHING ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE BASIN. WITH THIS...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM 23N-28N AND W OF 91W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 06N10W TO 01N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 02S26W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 05S37W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN...EXTENDING FROM 28N97W TO 28N94W TO 29N91W. TO THE SE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE GULF FROM 22N88W TO 26N82W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO ANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES AT THIS TIME AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF. THE ONLY AREA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS IN THE VICINITY OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN...ACROSS W CUBA...THEN INTO THE W ATLANTIC. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE W FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF TO CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE BASIN ATTACHED TO A 1003 MB SURFACE LOW THAT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF WITH CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SE GULF WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC. CARIBBEAN SEA... A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 21N85W TO 22N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...W CUBA...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE WATERS N OF COLOMBIA S OF 13N BETWEEN 70W-78W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. ...HISPANIOLA... LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER THE W ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN...ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 23N79W TO 32N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND THE WATERS BETWEEN 64W-76W. TO THE E...A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 31N55W. S OF THIS FEATURE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH CONSISTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM 25N64W TO 23N57W...THEN A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 25N42W TO 32N32W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THESE BOUNDARIES AT THIS TIME. TO THE E...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 33N22W TO 29N26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THIS FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN 23W-31W. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E PORTION OF THE BASIN E OF 22W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA