000 AXNT20 KNHC 112341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A PARTIALLY OCCLUDED 985 MB STORM FORCE SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N43W WITH THE FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT LOCATED NE OF THE LOW NEAR 35N37W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS S-SW FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 30N36W TO 22N40W TO 17N50W TO THE EASTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 21N-31N BETWEEN 33W-39W. WHILE THE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM N OF 24N BETWEEN 43W-47W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO 04N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N20W TO 04N35W TO 02N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MOSTLY DRY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF AN APPROACHING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO OVER WEST TEXAS AND EXTREME NORTHERN MEXICO. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCH OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXTENDS FROM OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION W-SW TO NW MEXICO. HOWEVER...AT THE SURFACE...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N91W SPREADS INFLUENCE SOUTHWARD PROVIDING THE GULF WATERS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WIND REGIME IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING FROM THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BORDER NEAR 29N94W TO 26N96W TO 21N96W. EXTENSIVE OVERCAST CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING W OF 92W. ANOTHER AREA OF NOTABLE PRECIPITATION IS ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO 23N86W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING S OF 26N E OF 87W. THE EXISTING RIDGE ACROSS THE SE CONUS IS FORECAST TO RECEIVE REINFORCEMENT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AN INCREASE IN NE TO E WINDS WHILE SURFACE TROUGHING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS THE NW GULF LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO WITH THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W EXTENDING SW TO 20N85W AND INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERALLY NW OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER A COUPLE AREAS TO NOTE...ONE IS A WESTWARD MOVING SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 13N72W TO 17N71W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 68W- 73W...AND THE OTHER IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 17N50W TO THE EASTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL E OF 80W WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS POSSIBLE WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...HISPANIOLA... CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS EVENING AS STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE ISLAND. NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... -SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR BERMUDA EXTENDING SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 210 NM NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE... WEAK RIDGING PREVAILS TO THE SE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N65W THAT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FARTHER EAST...THE SPECIAL FEATURES STORM FORCE LOW INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS PUERTO RICO. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE AND REMAIN A RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 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