000 AXNT20 KNHC 241743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE NW PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 73W-79W. SEAS OF 12 TO 17 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N08W TO 05N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-04N BETWEEN 15W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N91W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E PORTION OF THE BASIN. TO THE W...A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF STATES. THESE FEATURES ARE SUPPORTING PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 27N AND W OF 91W AS NOTED IN LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A MODERATE TO FRESH SE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH THAT CONTINUES CENTERED OVER THE W- CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE BASIN. WITH THIS...GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AFFECTING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS MAINLY N OF 26N AND W OF 74W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR 32N59W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. TO THE S...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N44W TO 04N44W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N29W AND EXTENDS ITS TROUGH AXIS TO THE SW. A LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS E OF THIS TROUGH AXIS AFFECTING THE FAR E ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 12N-16N AND E OF 30W. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA