000
AXNT20 KNHC 131747
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO
05N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N15W TO 03N25W TO 04N40W TO 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 22W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                              
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH
AXIS FROM OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N-NE TO OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA. TO THE WEST OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...A VIGOROUS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROVIDING MOSTLY MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. THE
TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED AT 12/1500 UTC FROM
GALVESTON BAY TEXAS SW TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. STRONG TO NEAR GALE
FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING NW OF A LINE FROM 23N98W
TO 29N92W. FRESH TO STRONG S-SE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGER WINDS GENERALLY W OF
90W. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PREVAILING THEREAFTER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NW AND
NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSED ON A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
REGION NEAR 21N76W. MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS LOCATED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND N OF 17N BETWEEN
72W-79W IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT AND
FRESH TRADES EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
STRONGEST TRADES AS USUAL WILL OCCUR WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA.

...HISPANIOLA...                                               
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE REGION NEAR 21N76W THAT IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 72W-79W. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BEGIN WEAKENING WHILE LIFTING NE BY
WEDNESDAY. UNTIL WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALOFT AND RESULT IN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE REGION THAT SUPPORTS AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 69W-79W. THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 22N79W TO 26N76W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY
OF 35N38W THAT SUPPORTS A 997 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N37W. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIES FROM 32N35W SW TO 25N40W TO 23N50W TO
23N57W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 25N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...
THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR
THE CANARY ISLANDS SW TO 19N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN