000 AXNT20 KNHC 080608 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE DEC 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N13W TO 06N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N14W TO 03N20W TO 05N32W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 10N32W TO 02N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 01N-10N BETWEEN 13W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. JUST N ...THE TAIL END OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 26N80W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS AT 25N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...W CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 80W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF THE FRONTS. MODERATE NE SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN N OF FRONTS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS WEAK TROUGHING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW GULF. SLIGHT RIDGING WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SE GULF TO PERSIST WITH CONVECTION. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR OVER W CUBA. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N87W TO 18N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 18N86W TO 15N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. FURTHER S... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 80W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 06N- 10N BETWEEN 73W-77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND E HISPANIOLA...N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W- 70W. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO PANAMA. TO THE E...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N64W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOW OVER THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA E OF 70W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 0300 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N71W TO THE N BAHAMAS AT 26N77W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N76W TO S FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 77W-80W...AND FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN70W-73W. SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 22N W OF 73W. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N55W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 29N60W TO 31N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N23W TO 25N40W TO 31N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N57W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 22N18W. EXPECT THE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA