000 AXNT20 KNHC 072344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON DEC 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N14W TO 07N29W...THEN RESUMES W OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 06N33W AND CONTINUES TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 48W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N E OF 28W. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N31W TO 04N32W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONE ANCHORED OVER SW NEW YORK EXTENDS A TROUGH S ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS TO A BASE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS UPPER FEATURE SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF N CAROLINA SW TO A LOW NE OF JACKSONVILLE AND TAIL REACHING NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. IT ALSO PARTIALLY SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SW N ATLC AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A 1013 MB LOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 18N91W. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT CONVERGING WITH MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN SW WIND FLOW IN THE GULF AND A RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 26N E OF 89W AND WITHIN 30 NM OFF WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH CENTERS N OF THE AREA AND A THIRD HIGH OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE RIDGE SUPPORT NE WIND FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE FRONT AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW NORTHERLIES OF 15 TO 20 KT IN THE REMAINDER WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY EARLY TUE AND NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. DURING THAT TIME RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A NEWLY FORMED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A FRONT STALLS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW NEAR 22N85W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S TO CENTRAL HONDURAS. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN SW WIND FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALSO SUPPORT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG CUBA. ANOTHER DIFFLUENCE REGION IS BEING GENERATED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THAT ALONG WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW N BASIN SUPPORT TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY TUE AFTERNOON. ...HISPANIOLA... A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT BEING GENERATED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING...THEN FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW NE OF JACKSONVILLE TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. TO THE SE...A SECOND STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 33N57W SW TO 29N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF A LINE FROM 30N68W TO 20N75W. FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SE TO 32N52W WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ENTERING THE N CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N48W AND CONTINUING ESE ALONG 26N36W TO 29N25W...NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FINALLY...OVER THE NE ATLC A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REFLECTS AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N21W TO 24N22W. THE WESTERN MOST STATIONARY FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT AND WILL MERGE WITH THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS. THIS NEW FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE REGION THROUGH WED WITH CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR