000 AXNT20 KNHC 281735 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 08N19W...WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 03N30W TO 05N40W TO 05N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 13W AND 47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE GULF IS PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE AND INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE NW GULF FROM 29N95W TO 26N97W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER THE SE US IS PRODUCING MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NW GULF WITH ONGOING SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE W ATLC TO E CUBA AND OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO PANAMA AND N COLOMBIA. ASCENT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W...AND S OF 10N E OF 78W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INDICATE THAT A SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION ALONG 69W. SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE E OF 69W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE W OF 69W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE JUST E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM DRIFTS TO THE WEST. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN CUBA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE W ATLC TO HAITI NEAR 19N72W. THESE FEATURES ARE SUPPORTING SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT ENHANCED CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE TROUGHS DRIFT SLOWLY WEST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC TO 31N72W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N76W TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N67W TO 25N70W TO HAITI NEAR 19N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 31N62W TO 19N65W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N49W TO 05N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N26W SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 24W AND 32W. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO