000 AXNT20 KNHC 121757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N76W TO 08N76W...MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT. THIS WAVE CORRESPONDS TO A 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 75W AND 78W IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH MOISTURE. AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST IS PRODUCING NW FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WAVE...INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. THE WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N90W TO THE E PACIFIC NEAR 09N91W. PLEASE REFER TO THE E PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATWDEP FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO 10N27W TO 06N38W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 10W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS W OF 34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS S FL TO THE SE GULF NEAR 24N86W. THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT IS DISSIPATING AND WILL NOT BE ON SUBSEQUENT ANALYSIS MAPS. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE N GULF NEAR 29N91W TO 27N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHER SHOWERS OVER THE SW GULF NEAR VERA CRUZ ARE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE NEAR THE MEXICO COAST. FRESH NW WINDS ARE N OF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE FRONT. MODERATE VARIABLE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SE ACROSS THE GULF AND WILL RESIDE FROM N FL TO NEAR VERA CRUZ MEXICO BY 1200 UTC FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OUT FROM THE FL KEYS TO THE SW GULF ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA COMBINED WITH THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY HIGH MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 19N BETWEEN 77W AND 86W. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH SHOULD ACT TO FURTHER ENHANCE CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N60W TO 29N65W TO 27N74W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR W PALM BEACH FL. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW N ATLC EXTENDING FROM 28N60W TO 23N67W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 26N. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N31W TO 23N33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO