000 AXNT20 KNHC 091155 AAA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMENDED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015 AMENDED FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON T.D. TWELVE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 1200 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE IS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N/75.0W...MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAHAMAS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING EXTENDING FROM 15N41W TO 06N42W...MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT AND A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING AT 700 MB BETWEEN 38W-44W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N62W TO 11N63W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 60W-66W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 59W-70W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N81W TO 09N82W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. HIGH MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE WITH A WELL DEFINED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 80W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 78W-85W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W TO 06N25W TO 05N31W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO 04N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N- 11N AND E OF 28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 29N88W. A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW TO 24N92W THEN AS A STATIONARY FROM THIS POINT TO 19N96W. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM 29N86W TO 25N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURES WITH A HIGHER CONCENTRATION N OF 24N BETWEEN 83W-88W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE A GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND OVER THE SE US. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH T.D TWELVE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 18N BETWEEN 69W-71W AFFECTING HISPANIOLA. TO THE S...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 10N ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W. ...HISPANIOLA... THE PROXIMITY OF T.D. TWELVE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. AS THE T.D. MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE E BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... T.D. TWELVE IS OVER SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND E SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1032 SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N18W. TO THE E...A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N19W TO 23N32W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS TROUGH BETWEEN 27W-33W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA