000 AXNT20 KNHC 081806 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN NOV 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA FROM JACKSONVILLE TO 29N83W WHERE IT BRIEFLY TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 28N88W. FROM THE LOW A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 24N92W TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED S OF LAKE MICHIGAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ALONG EASTERN MEXICO AND GENERATES A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE FRONT. GALE WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUST UP TO 40 KT AND SEAS REACHING UP TO 12 FT WILL CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER HSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE DETAILS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED AROUND A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED N OF HISPANIOLA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY WHILE IT MOVES WNW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NW BAHAMAS. REGARDLESS OF ITS DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA TODAY AND OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE S BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE CHANCE OF FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER TWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 04N41W TO 11N38W...MOVING W AT ABOUT 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM SURFACE TO 850 MB SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE WITH PATCHES OF DRY AIR IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 35W-42W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 09N59W TO 16N56W...MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM SURFACE TO 850 MB SHOW MOSTLY DRY AIR IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR HINDER DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 11N79W TO 18N78W...MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM SURFACE TO 850 MB SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN THE REGION LIMITS THE CONVECTION TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 76W-79W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N21W TO 06N36W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N43W TO 08N53W TO 08N60W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03N-10N E OF 36W AND FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 43W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA FROM JACKSONVILLE TO 29N83W WHERE IT BRIEFLY TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 28N88W. FROM THE LOW A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 24N92W TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W. THIS FRONT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF WITH BASE OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 25N88W TO 23N90W AND A TROUGH IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N91W TO 18N93W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW N ATLC TO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N E OF 90W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 NM S OF THE LOW AND AT THE TAIL OF THE FRONT FROM 19N TO 22N W OF 94W. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED S OF LAKE MICHIGAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ALONG EASTERN MEXICO AND GENERATES A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NW GULF...DENSE FOG AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S FLOW IS E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GALE WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUST UP TO 40 KT AND SEAS REACHING UP TO 12 FT WILL CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE SW AND NE PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 78W...ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 76W- 79W. PLEASE REFER TO WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...DIVERGENCE BETWEEN AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER E CUBA AND A RIDGE CENTERED NE OF PUERTO RICO IN THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF HISPANIOLA TO 16N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER NE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE N OF HISPANIOLA ANCHORED BY A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 20N70W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE ISLAND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED S OF PUERTO RICO TO 16N AND WITHIN 30 NM FROM THE NE COAST OF THE ISLAND. EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE ISLANDS...FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN. ...HISPANIOLA... DIVERGENCE BETWEEN AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER E CUBA AND A RIDGE CENTERED NE OF PUERTO RICO IN THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF HISPANIOLA TO 16N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER NE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE N OF HISPANIOLA ANCHORED BY A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 20N70W. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA TODAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA FROM JACKSONVILLE TO 29N83W...THE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE BASIN IS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER N OF HISPANIOLA WITH HIGH CHANCES OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE EITHER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. OVER THE E BASIN THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N20W TO 26N24W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO 20N37W. RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS